AMD server CPU on a data center motherboard with headline highlighting 2026 supply constraints and early market signals for buyers.

AMD Server CPU Availability Tightens for 2026 Planning

AMD server CPU availability is becoming harder to secure as EPYC Genoa and Turin shortages persist. See how lead times and pricing are shaping 2026 planning.

Buyer behavior across the AMD server CPU market is shifting as availability remains constrained and lead times continue to stretch. Recent sourcing patterns indicate rising urgency around Genoa and Turin EPYC processors, with customers increasingly focused on securing coverage for 2026 rather than near-term builds alone.&nbsp;

NEPCON 2026 Recap

Insights from NEPCON Japan 2026 on AI-driven demand shifts, DRAM supply risk, sourcing strategy, and what electronics buyers should plan for in 2026.

NEPCON Japan has long served as a trusted barometer for the electronics industry. But this year, one message stood out clearly: the market narrative is shifting, and buyers still operating on last year’s assumptions risk falling behind.

Over three days in Tokyo, our team spoke with OEMs, EMS providers, component manufacturers, and partners across semiconductors, industrial electronics, and advanced manufacturing. The conversations were candid and grounded. Rather than chasing short-term price relief, discussions increasingly focused on what comes next—supply chain fragility, AI-driven demand volatility, and the growing urgency to build sourcing resilience for 2026 and beyond.
Below are the most important signals we took away—and why they matter.
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">Signal #1: AI Demand Is Quietly Reshaping the Broader Market</h2>
While not every conversation centered on AI, its influence was unmistakable.
Across multiple manufacturers, we heard consistent references to:
<ul>
<li>Capacity quietly being reserved for AI-adjacent programs</li>
<li>Longer planning horizons for advanced memory, GPUs, and power components</li>
<li>Increased internal scrutiny around where inventory will flow—not just current stock levels</li>
</ul>
Even buyers not directly serving AI markets expressed concern about indirect exposure, particularly if allocation priorities shift with little notice.
The industry is no longer divided cleanly between AI and non-AI demand. AI has become a gravity well—affecting pricing, availability, and supplier behavior across a wide range of components.
For buyers, this means risk is no longer isolated to headline parts. Second- and third-order impacts matter, and they are arriving faster than most internal planning cycles can accommodate.
<img src="https://5664301.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/5664301/NEPCON%20Pic%201.png" width="878" height="460" loading="lazy" alt="NEPCON Pic 1" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; width: 878px;"> 
&nbsp;
<h2>Signal #2: Sourcing Strategy Is Moving Upstream</h2>
Another clear shift from prior years is how early buyers are engaging sourcing partners.
Rather than reacting through spot buys, many teams discussed:
<ul>
<li>Earlier engagement for demand modeling and supply forecasting</li>
<li>Risk-based sourcing strategies tied directly to production timelines</li>
<li>Blended approaches that combine OEM relationships with open-market intelligence</li>
</ul>
This reflects a broader realization: price optimization alone is not a strategy—resilience is.
At Fusion, this mirrors what we are seeing globally. Customers are asking not just whether a part can be sourced, but what happens if the market shifts again—and how exposed they may be when it does.
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">Signal #3: Memory—Especially DRAM—Is the Risk Everyone Is Watching</h2>
If one topic consistently resurfaced at NEPCON, it was memory—specifically DRAM.
Even among buyers not tied to AI servers or hyperscale programs, there was widespread awareness that the memory market is tightening faster than expected. Attendees pointed to increasing allocation discipline, early signs of price firming, and uncertainty around how much capacity will remain available for non-AI applications as 2026 progresses.
What stood out was not panic, but vigilance.
Unlike past cycles—where constraints became visible only after shortages hit—buyers this year are paying attention earlier. Many acknowledged DRAM’s tendency to flip quickly, and recognized that today’s relative calm masks a market shaped by:
<ul>
<li>AI-driven demand concentration</li>
<li>Supply rationalization following prolonged downturns</li>
<li>Longer lead-time commitments required to secure future capacity</li>
</ul>
The concern is less about if DRAM tightens, and more about when—and whether internal assumptions will lag reality.
The takeaway is clear: memory is no longer treated as a background commodity. For many organizations, DRAM is now a strategic exposure requiring continuous monitoring, not quarterly check-ins.
&nbsp;
<img src="https://5664301.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/5664301/NEPCON%20Pic%202.png" width="897" height="493" loading="lazy" alt="NEPCON Pic 2" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; width: 897px;">
<h2>What Buyers Should Do Now</h2>
Based on what we heard at NEPCON Japan 2026, three actions stand out:
<ul>
<li>
Separate short-term relief from long-term planning. Use today’s availability to stabilize programs—not to relax controls.
</li>
<li>
Pressure-test indirect exposure to AI demand. Even if you don’t build for AI, your supply chain may.
</li>
<li>
Treat sourcing intelligence as a strategic input, not a transaction. The most prepared teams we spoke with are already doing this—and it shows.&nbsp;
</li>
</ul>
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">Looking Ahead</h2>
NEPCON Japan 2026 reinforced a simple truth: the industry is not returning to an old normal. It is entering a phase where volatility is episodic, asymmetric, and fast-moving.
The teams that succeed won’t be the ones that predict perfectly. They’ll be the ones that stay informed, remain flexible, and act before conditions change. If NEPCON taught us anything this year, it’s that being Out in Front isn’t about forecasting the future—it’s about being ready when it shifts.
&nbsp;
Get ongoing visibility into the signals shaping the electronics market. <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/the-greensheet-january-2026" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Sign up for The Greensheet </a>for monthly market insights delivered straight to you. Sign up now.&nbsp;

NEPCON Japan has long served as a trusted barometer for the electronics industry. But this year, one message stood out clearly: the market narrative is shifting, and buyers still operating on last year’s assumptions risk falling behind.

The Greensheet: January 2026

The January 2026 Greensheet examines accelerating price increases, shrinking allocations, and extended lead times across memory, CPUs, GPUs, storage, and passives as AI demand reshapes the supply landscape.

<a id="key-themes" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2>Key Themes</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/inside-ddr5-rdimm-supply-why-96gb-and-128gb-modules-are-hard-to-find" rel="noopener" target="_blank">DDR5 RDIMM Enters a Hyperinflation Phase:</a> DDR5 RDIMM pricing has surged to unprecedented levels. 64GB modules now trade above $1,500, and 96GB units exceed $3,200, with weekly price resets becoming standard. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are allocating over 75% of output directly to hyperscalers, leaving traditional OEMs and distributors scrambling in a seller’s market with NCNR terms and no visibility beyond Q1.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/will-dram-shortages-threaten-automotive-production-in-2026" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Automotive DRAM Chip Supply Tightens as AI Allocation Accelerates:</a><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/will-dram-shortages-threaten-automotive-production-in-2026" rel="noopener" target="_blank"> </a>Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung are devoting most of their resources to AI and server-class HBM and DRAM. AI-driven demand far exceeds current capacity, pushing automotive-critical DRAM further down allocation priorities through 2026. Automotive OEMs are already entering the market early to secure buffer supply.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/nexperia-supply-chain-update-2025-global-market-impact-and-buyer-strategy" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Nexperia Fragmentation Deepens</a><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/nexperia-supply-chain-update-2025-global-market-impact-and-buyer-strategy" rel="noopener" target="_blank">: </a>While limited domestic shipments from Nexperia China have resumed under yuan-based transactions, global OEMs, including automotive Tier 1s, are permanently qualifying On Semi, Diodes Inc., and Infineon as replacements. Authenticity concerns persist for parts produced after October 2025, and Malaysia-based production remains unreliable, with many high-runners still facing lead times into 2027. A hearing began on 1/14 in the Netherlands, and so far there appears to be no clear compromise or resolution.</li>
<li>Intel’s 10nm Portfolio Becoming Less Viable: Intel is enforcing double-digit price hikes across its entire 10nm CPU stack (12th–14th Gen desktop, mobile, and server) effective Q2 2026, citing unsustainable economics. Small-core CPUs (N97, N305, N355) remain in short supply, with allocations being decommitted as far out as March 2026. Customers report Intel is now demanding 6-month forecasts just to secure minimal volumes.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/enterprise-ssd-supply-what-buyers-need-to-know" rel="noopener" target="_blank">SSD &amp; HDD Allocation Collapses for Non-Hyperscalers</a><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/enterprise-ssd-supply-what-buyers-need-to-know" rel="noopener" target="_blank">:</a> Enterprise SSDs from Solidigm, Samsung, and Kioxia are now effectively reserved for top customers. Channel partners receive &lt;30% allocation and face 20–70% Q1 price hikes. Similarly, 20TB+ HDDs from Seagate and WD are backlogged into mid-2026, while low-capacity drives (1–2TB) are being phased out entirely to force upgrades.</li>
</ul>
<a id="product-updates" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2 style="text-align: center;">Product Updates</h2>
<a id="integrated-circuits" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1004/integrated-circuits-ics" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Integrated Circuits</a></h2>
<div>Supply Constraints and Market Shifts</div>
<ul>
<li>ADI implements 15% portfolio-wide price increase effective February 1, 2026, with military-grade MPNs seeing ~30% hikes. Lead times for key op-amps (e.g., OPA series) now exceed 40 weeks due to backend capacity limits and substrate shortages.</li>
<li>TI signals significant price increases for new lead-time orders in Q1 2026, per multiple specialist vendors. Customers are rushing to lock in 2025 pricing before formal notices drop.</li>
<li>Marvell and Realtek extend lead times to 32–52 weeks as TSMC redirects wafer capacity to AI memory. Mid-and low-end Ethernet switch ICs (e.g., <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/product/4198451/88E6320-A0-NAZ2C000" rel="noopener" target="_blank">88E6320</a>) are especially impacted.</li>
<li>Sony industrial sensor ICs face decommits through Q1 due to end-of-fiscal-year demand surges in Japan, disrupting dashcam and machine vision builds.</li>
</ul>
<a id="cpus" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;"><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1205/cpus" rel="noopener" target="_blank">CPUs&nbsp;</a></h2>
Pricing Trends and Supply Constraints
<ul>
<li>Intel confirms 10–15% price hikes on Server CPUs in Q2 2026, driven by AI business prioritization.<a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/product/4288323/PK8072006269900" rel="noopener" target="_blank"> SRV5F</a> and SRWPD SKUs are in extreme shortage, with lead times stretching into April.</li>
<li>AMD sells out all server CPU capacity through 2026, with <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1205/cpus?manufacturers=8&amp;Core+Family=Genoa%3A%3BTurin" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Genoa/Turin</a> lead times at 24+ weeks. Cloud providers are absorbing nearly all output; channel customers report zero allocation guarantees.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1205/cpus?manufacturers=70&amp;Core+Family=Alder+Lake&amp;Series=N-Series" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Intel Alder Lake-N series</a> (<a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/product/4260030/FJ8071504742034" rel="noopener" target="_blank">N97</a>, <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/product/4260078/FJ8071504742028" rel="noopener" target="_blank">N305</a>, etc.) remains critically constrained, with March 2026 allocations already decommitted. Intel is deprioritizing low-margin SKUs to focus on Panther Lake/18A AI PC ramp.</li>
</ul>
<a id="gpus" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;"><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1206/gpus" rel="noopener" target="_blank">GPUs</a></h2>
<div>
<div>Shifting Availability and Lifecycle Changes</div>
</div>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1206/gpus?manufacturers=225&amp;Series=RTX+5090" rel="noopener" target="_blank">NVIDIA RTX 5090</a> production remains minimal until April 2026 due to GDDR7 shortages. Spot prices have surged, and Nvidia is not accepting new POs.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1206/gpus?manufacturers=225&amp;Series=RTX+PRO+2000%3A%3BRTX+PRO+4000%3A%3BRTX+PRO+4500%3A%3BRTX+PRO+5000%3A%3BRTX+PRO+6000" rel="noopener" target="_blank">NVIDIA RTX PRO Ada</a> workstation GPUs face lead times of 8–12 weeks as Nvidia prioritizes Blackwell B-series and RTX 6000 for AI deployments.</li>
</ul>
<a id="networking" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2 style="font-weight: normal;"><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1337/networking" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Networking</a></h2>
<div>Ongoing Shortages and Regional Policy Disruptions</div>
<ul>
<li>Nvidia bundles CX8 NICs exclusively with GB-series GPUs, making standalone purchases nearly impossible. MCCX-7 availability remains erratic despite prior improvement signals.</li>
</ul>
<a id="memory" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;"><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1199/memory" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Memory</a></h2>
<div>Production Restart and Capacity Challenges</div>
<ul>
<li>Samsung hikes DDR5 contract prices by up to 60%, forcing customers into weekly, non-negotiable NCNR agreements. <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1208/memory-modules?manufacturers=141&amp;Density=32GB" rel="noopener" target="_blank">32GB</a> / <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1208/memory-modules?Density=64GB&amp;manufacturers=141" rel="noopener" target="_blank">64GB</a> / <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1208/memory-modules?manufacturers=141&amp;Density=96GB" rel="noopener" target="_blank">96GB</a> and <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1208/memory-modules?manufacturers=141&amp;Density=128GB" rel="noopener" target="_blank">128GB</a> modules are now quoted daily, with prices rising 5–10% week-over-week.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1199/memory?manufacturers=141&amp;Memory+Technology=LPDDR4%3A%3BLPDDR5" rel="noopener" target="_blank">LPDDR4/5 </a>and eMMC supply collapses for automotive. Wafer capacity is being reallocated to HBM/DDR5 for AI. <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/will-dram-shortages-threaten-automotive-production-in-2026" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Automotive-grade memory prices have surged</a>, with brokers holding the only viable spot stock. eMMC allocation covers only ~15% of orders, with Q4 2025 seeing 20–30% price hikes on 4–8GB modules.</li>
</ul>
<a id="rdimm" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2 style="font-size: 30px;"><a href="http://fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1208/memory-modules" rel="noopener" target="_blank">RDIMM</a></h2>
<div>Long-Term Support with Tight Allocation Ahead</div>
<ul>
<li>Module suppliers require acceptance within 30 days of PO or risk losing allocation, highlighting extreme volatility. Daily pricing is now standard practice.</li>
<li>AI server demand drives an acute shortage of <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1208/memory-modules?Density=96GB%3A%3B128GB" rel="noopener" target="_blank">96GB/128GB modules</a>. Samsung’s 96GB (Q-die) is slightly available, but <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1208/memory-modules?Density=128GB&amp;manufacturers=141" rel="noopener" target="_blank">128GB </a>remains extremely tight due to shared die constraints.</li>
<li>DDR5 fulfillment rates plummet with Q1 pricing expected to rise 50–70%. Lead Times for new orders are on average 54+ weeks.</li>
</ul>
<a id="ssd" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;"><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1236/solid-state-drives" rel="noopener" target="_blank">SSD</a></h2>
<div>Capacity Shortages and Manufacturer Price Moves</div>
<ul>
<li>Solidigm, Samsung, and Micron hike Q1 SSD prices by 20–70%, with enterprise SKUs like 7.68TB NVMe trading above $1,500. Allocation is restricted to hyperscalers.</li>
<li>Kioxia BG6 NVMe SSDs are nearly unobtainable, <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/nand-supply-tightens" rel="noopener" target="_blank">signaling emerging NAND flash shortages.</a> Samsung halts distributor sales of SATA SSDs entirely in January. As Memory manufacturers focus on keeping DRAM and HBM production high, NAND production has fallen.</li>
</ul>
<a id="hdd" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;"><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1235/hard-disk-drives" rel="noopener" target="_blank">HDD</a></h2>
<div>Tight Supply for High-Capacity SKUs and Extended Lead Times</div>
<ul>
<li>Toshiba is unable to support 20TB+ models (e.g., <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/product/4260268/MG10ACA20TE" rel="noopener" target="_blank">MG10ACA20TE)</a>; lead times for <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1242/server-hard-disk-drives?manufacturers=182&amp;Storage+Capacity=10TB%3A%3B12TB%3A%3B14TB%3A%3B16TB%3A%3B18TB%3A%3B20TB%3A%3B22TB%3A%3B24TB" rel="noopener" target="_blank">10–24TB drives</a> stretch into Q2 2026. Backorder pricing is not being honored.</li>
<li>Seagate raises prices “almost daily” on low-capacity SKUs, releasing allocations in shrinking batches. 1TB drives are effectively EOL.</li>
<li>Even major CSPs report HDD shortages for<a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1242/server-hard-disk-drives?Storage+Capacity=16TB%3A%3B18TB%3A%3B20TB%3A%3B22TB%3A%3B24TB" rel="noopener" target="_blank"> 16–24TB capacities</a>, with Toshiba excluded from most qualified vendor lists.</li>
</ul>
<a id="passives" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;"><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1006/passive-components" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Passives</a></h2>
<div>Extended Lead Times and Allocation</div>
<ul>
<li>Panasonic announces significant Q1 2026 price hikes on tantalum capacitors, with full capacity booked through the quarter. Lead times now exceed 40 weeks.</li>
<li>MLCCs from <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1172/ceramic-capacitors?manufacturers=141" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Samsung,</a> <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1172/ceramic-capacitors?manufacturers=105" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Murata,</a> and <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1172/ceramic-capacitors?manufacturers=155" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Taiyo Yuden </a>remain at 24–28 weeks, exacerbated by upstream shortages of low-Dk fiberglass and HVLP copper foil, with both prioritized for AI server PCBs.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1100/mosfets?manufacturers=189" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Vishay MOSFETs</a> (e.g., <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/product/4273302/SQ2389CES-T1-GE3" rel="noopener" target="_blank" id="__hsNewLink">SQ2389CES</a>) see 25-week lead times, with distributors reporting allocation cuts across resistors, capacitors, and discretes.</li>
</ul>
<a id="supply-chain-trends" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2 style="text-align: center;">Supply Chain Trends&nbsp;</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/14/tech/chip-tariff-trump">Trump invokes Section 232:</a> A new 25% tariff on certain advanced computing chips that includes Nvidia’s H200 chip and AMD’s MI325X. However, chips imported to support building up the US technological supply chain would be exempt.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3339896/why-china-may-buy-nvidias-h200-chips-trump-eases-curbs-and-replace-them-later">China takes cautious stance on US H200 chip export:</a> China is likely to accept Nvidia’s H200 artificial intelligence (AI) chips following US clearance, driven by immediate demand in the country’s vast tech sector.</li>
<li><a href="https://wccftech.com/sk-hynix-denies-rumors-of-exiting-the-consumer-business/">SK hynix has responded to rumors that the company is exiting the consumer business</a>: SK hynix will still satisfy consumer demand through OEM channels, but balancing it with AI supply is becoming difficult.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ram/micron-addresses-crucial-exit-backlash-we-are-trying-to-help-consumers-around-the-world-company-warns-that-dram-drought-could-last-until-at-least-2028">Micron addresses Crucial exit backlash:</a> Micron warned that, despite breaking ground on new memory fabs, customers shouldn't expect to see meaningful output impacting memory supply until at least 2028.</li>
</ul>
<a id="manufacturer-news-and-updates" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2 style="text-align: center;">Manufacturer News and Updates&nbsp;</h2>
<ul>
<li>Samsung Forecasts Record Q4 Profit: Driven by “tight supply and soaring prices” in memory, Samsung projects its highest quarterly earnings since 2022. New DRAM fabs in Korea remain on track for mid-2027 completion. [Source: <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/samsung-elec-estimates-208-rise-q4-operating-profit-beating-expectations-2026-01-07/">Reuters</a>]</li>
<li>TSMC forecasts nearly 30% revenue growth: TSMC held its earnings conference call on January 15, 2026, and guided for the first quarter. The company expects revenue to range between US$34.6–35.8 billion. Gross margin is projected at 63–65%, while operating margin is expected to rise significantly to 54–56%. [Source: <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4539308-tsm-rises-after-q4-profit-surges-amid-ai-boom-plans-more-us-factories">SeekingAlpha</a>]</li>
</ul>
<h2 data-start="254" data-end="482"><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/agentic-ai-preparing-for-the-hybrid-infrastructure-surge" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Explore our latest Market Intelligence on Agentic AI</a></h2>
A focused look at how Agentic AI workloads are reshaping demand for memory, GPUs, advanced packaging, and infrastructure—and what sourcing teams should be watching next. <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/agentic-ai-preparing-for-the-hybrid-infrastructure-surge" rel="noopener" target="_blank" id="__hsNewLink">Read now.</a>
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

<a id="key-themes" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2>Key Themes</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/inside-ddr5-rdimm-supply-why-96gb-and-128gb-modules-are-hard-to-find" rel="noopener" target="_blank">DDR5 RDIMM Enters a Hyperinflation Phase:</a> DDR5 RDIMM pricing has surged to unprecedented levels. 64GB modules now trade above $1,500, and 96GB units exceed $3,200, with weekly price resets becoming standard. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are allocating over 75% of output directly to hyperscalers, leaving traditional OEMs and distributors scrambling in a seller’s market with NCNR terms and no visibility beyond Q1.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/will-dram-shortages-threaten-automotive-production-in-2026" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Automotive DRAM Chip Supply Tightens as AI Allocation Accelerates:</a><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/will-dram-shortages-threaten-automotive-production-in-2026" rel="noopener" target="_blank"> </a>Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung are devoting most of their resources to AI and server-class HBM and DRAM. AI-driven demand far exceeds current capacity, pushing automotive-critical DRAM further down allocation priorities through 2026. Automotive OEMs are already entering the market early to secure buffer supply.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/nexperia-supply-chain-update-2025-global-market-impact-and-buyer-strategy" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Nexperia Fragmentation Deepens</a><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/nexperia-supply-chain-update-2025-global-market-impact-and-buyer-strategy" rel="noopener" target="_blank">: </a>While limited domestic shipments from Nexperia China have resumed under yuan-based transactions, global OEMs, including automotive Tier 1s, are permanently qualifying On Semi, Diodes Inc., and Infineon as replacements. Authenticity concerns persist for parts produced after October 2025, and Malaysia-based production remains unreliable, with many high-runners still facing lead times into 2027. A hearing began on 1/14 in the Netherlands, and so far there appears to be no clear compromise or resolution.</li>
<li>Intel’s 10nm Portfolio Becoming Less Viable: Intel is enforcing double-digit price hikes across its entire 10nm CPU stack (12th–14th Gen desktop, mobile, and server) effective Q2 2026, citing unsustainable economics. Small-core CPUs (N97, N305, N355) remain in short supply, with allocations being decommitted as far out as March 2026. Customers report Intel is now demanding 6-month forecasts just to secure minimal volumes.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/enterprise-ssd-supply-what-buyers-need-to-know" rel="noopener" target="_blank">SSD &amp; HDD Allocation Collapses for Non-Hyperscalers</a><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/enterprise-ssd-supply-what-buyers-need-to-know" rel="noopener" target="_blank">:</a> Enterprise SSDs from Solidigm, Samsung, and Kioxia are now effectively reserved for top customers. Channel partners receive &lt;30% allocation and face 20–70% Q1 price hikes. Similarly, 20TB+ HDDs from Seagate and WD are backlogged into mid-2026, while low-capacity drives (1–2TB) are being phased out entirely to force upgrades.</li>
</ul>

Why 96GB and 128GB DDR5 RDIMM Modules Remain Scarce in 2026

Explore why DDR5 RDIMM 96GB and 128GB modules face shortages with long lead times and price hikes. Trust our electronic component distribution. Get a fast quote today.

Inside DDR5 RDIMM Supply Challenges for 96GB & 128GB Modules | Fusion Worldwide

DDR5 RDIMM availability has tightened sharply since late 2025, with prices accelerating and allocation falling well short of global demand. While memory shortages are not new to the semiconductor industry, the current squeeze—especially around <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1208/memory-modules?Density=96GB%3A%3B128GB" rel="noopener" target="_blank">96GB and 128GB DDR5 RDIMM modules</a>—is being driven by a different set of forces than past cycles.

For many server and data center deployments, memory has now become the primary bottleneck. CPUs, accelerators, and storage may be available, but without sufficient high-capacity DDR5 RDIMM, systems cannot be fully deployed. This has extended lead times, increased pricing pressure, and forced procurement teams to rethink how and when memory is sourced.
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">Why DDR5 RDIMM Prices Are Rising So Quickly</h2>
A common question across the market is why DDR5 RAM is so expensive right now. The answer lies less in short-term disruption and more in a structural shift in how memory is produced and consumed.
As AI-driven technology accelerated in 2025, data center architectures began changing rapidly. AI workloads—particularly training and inference—require far more memory per server than traditional enterprise applications. This has dramatically increased memory requirements for AI, especially in large-scale cloud and hyperscale environments.
At the same time, memory manufacturers shifted production toward High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), which is essential for AI accelerators and carries higher margins. While overall DRAM output did not collapse, the mix of memory being produced changed, leaving less capacity available for DDR5 RDIMM.
The result has been sustained DDR5 memory price increases that reflect future scarcity rather than short-term demand spikes.
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">How AI Data Centers Are Impacting Memory Availability</h2>
AI data centers consume memory very differently from conventional enterprise environments. In addition to HBM attached to accelerators, these systems rely heavily on high-capacity DDR5 RDIMM for system memory, virtualization density, and data movement.
This has driven disproportionate demand for <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1208/memory-modules?Density=64GB" rel="noopener" target="_blank">64GB</a>, <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1208/memory-modules?Density=96GB" rel="noopener" target="_blank">96GB</a>, and<a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1208/memory-modules?Density=128GB" rel="noopener" target="_blank"> 128GB DDR5 RDIMM modules</a>. These configurations are now among the most difficult server components to source globally.
Industry estimates suggest current global memory production can support only 70–80% of total market demand, and that gap widens further when AI-driven growth is factored in. In practical terms, memory production cannot scale fast enough to keep up with AI adoption, particularly for higher-density RDIMM modules.
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">Allocation Pressure and Extended Lead Times</h2>
As supply tightened, allocation shortfalls became unavoidable.
Most Tier-1 hyperscalers are currently receiving only 40–60% of their requested DDR5 RDIMM allocation. Tier-2 and smaller customers often report fulfillment closer to 30% or less. New DDR5 RDIMM bookings routinely carry lead times exceeding 54 weeks, with limited delivery guarantees even when long-range forecasts are provided.
To improve planning visibility, manufacturers increasingly require rolling 52-week forecasts. Even so, these commitments do not ensure full allocation. In some regions, particularly Asia, scarcity has become so severe that buyers are exploring refurbished DDR5 RDIMM modules as a temporary bridge.
Across the market, DDR5 RDIMM has emerged as the single most consistent gating item for server production.
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">Pricing Behavior Under Allocation Constraints</h2>
Another common question is why memory pricing continues to rise even as demand becomes more predictable. In practice, pricing is being shaped less by short-term consumption and more by long-range allocation constraints.
As large cloud and infrastructure providers secure future memory supply earlier in the planning cycle, less volume remains available for near-term fulfillment. This dynamic places additional pressure on high-capacity DDR5 RDIMM modules, particularly 96GB and 128GB configurations, which are already constrained at the manufacturing level.
The result has been continued upward pricing pressure across the market, reflecting limited availability rather than speculative activity.
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">Is This Part of the Global Chip Shortage?</h2>
DDR5 RDIMM scarcity is often grouped into the broader global chip shortage, but the reality is more nuanced.
Not all semiconductor categories are constrained today. Instead, <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/ai-sets-the-price-why-dram-shortages-are-rewriting-memory-market-economics" rel="noopener" target="_blank">AI-driven demand has reshaped semiconductor market trends,</a> concentrating shortages in components that support compute-intensive workloads, especially memory. The impact of chip scarcity is therefore uneven, with DDR5 RDIMM among the most affected product categories.
This explains why <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/the-ddr4-price-spike-whats-behind-the-surge" rel="noopener" target="_blank">DDR4 pricing volatility</a>, <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/enterprise-ssd-supply-what-buyers-need-to-know" rel="noopener" target="_blank">SSD price increases,</a> and <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/will-dram-shortages-threaten-automotive-production-in-2026" rel="noopener" target="_blank">memory-specific shortages</a> can coexist alongside relative stability in other areas of the semiconductor market.
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">What This Means for Procurement and Supply Chain Teams</h2>
The DDR5 RDIMM shortage has fundamentally altered the procurement process for memory.
Procurement and supply chain teams are now being asked to commit earlier, forecast further out, and justify elevated pricing to finance stakeholders. Allocation risk has become a core planning variable, often outweighing traditional optimization strategies.
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In this environment, visibility into pricing trends, flexibility in sourcing, and proactive engagement with suppliers have become critical to maintaining deployment timelines. <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1229/desktop-memory-modules?Memory+Technology=DDR5" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Browse DDR5 components through Fusion</a> to evaluate current options and support near- and long-term infrastructure planning.
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;">Frequently Asked Questions</h2>
<h3>Why is DDR5 RAM so expensive right now?</h3>
DDR5 RAM pricing has risen because AI-driven data center demand has increased memory requirements faster than manufacturers can scale production, especially as capacity is prioritized toward HBM.
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<h3 style="font-size: 20px;">Why are 96GB and 128GB DDR5 RDIMM modules the hardest to find?</h3>
These high-capacity modules are essential for AI-adjacent and high-density server workloads, making them the first to tighten and the slowest to normalize.
&nbsp;
<h3 style="font-size: 20px;">How long are DDR5 RDIMM lead times?</h3>
Lead times for new DDR5 RDIMM bookings now exceed 54 weeks on average, with allocation often capped below requested volumes.
&nbsp;
<h3 style="font-size: 20px;">Why does pricing remain elevated even with better demand visibility?</h3>
Pricing continues to reflect long-range allocation constraints and limited near-term availability rather than short-term consumption patterns.
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<h3 style="font-size: 20px;">Is this shortage part of the global chip shortage?</h3>
Partially. While not all chips are constrained, AI-driven demand has concentrated shortages in memory, particularly DDR5 RDIMM.
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<h3 style="font-size: 20px;">When will DDR5 RDIMM supply normalize?</h3>
Meaningful relief is unlikely in the near term. Until HBM demand stabilizes or new DRAM capacity comes online, DDR5 RDIMM availability and pricing are expected to remain tight through 2026.

DDR5 RDIMM availability has tightened sharply since late 2025, with prices accelerating and allocation falling well short of global demand. While memory shortages are not new to the semiconductor industry, the current squeeze—especially around <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1208/memory-modules?Density=96GB%3A%3B128GB" rel="noopener" target="_blank">96GB and 128GB DDR5 RDIMM modules</a>—is being driven by a different set of forces than past cycles.

NAND Supply Tightens

NAND supply is tightening heading into 2026. Learn how production cuts, AI-driven demand, and pricing pressure are reshaping storage availability and device configurations.

For much of the past year, attention across the semiconductor market has centered on DRAM constraints, particularly the rapid rise of High Bandwidth Memory tied to AI infrastructure. As suppliers redirected capital and tooling toward higher-margin applications, other segments of the memory market were left increasingly constrained.

That imbalance is now surfacing in <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1200/flash" rel="noopener" target="_blank">NAND flash.</a>
As 2026 approaches, tightening NAND supply is no longer a background issue. It is beginning to influence pricing decisions, device specifications, and sourcing strategies across the industry, with the greatest impact falling on consumer electronics, OEMs, and module makers operating outside the hyperscale tier.
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">Production Discipline Is Tightening Supply at the Worst Possible Time</h2>
NAND availability is tightening as past underinvestment collides with deliberate production restraints from some of the industry’s largest suppliers.
<a href="https://biz.chosun.com/it-science/ict/2026/01/20/KO66OHRDJJHGPLQBCFBASNU3NQ/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Reporting from Chosun Biz</a> indicates that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which together control more than 60 percent of global NAND flash supply, are planning further production reductions this year. Samsung is expected to scale back output from approximately 4.9 million wafers to 4.68 million, while SK Hynix is reducing production from roughly 1.9 million wafers to 1.7 million wafers. These cuts follow similar reductions implemented last year after prolonged periods of low profitability.
The timing is critical. These production decisions are colliding with a renewed surge in storage demand driven by AI infrastructure, particularly as next-generation accelerators require significantly higher SSD capacity to support inference-heavy workloads.
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">AI Demand Is Pulling NAND Into the Same Margin Playbook as DRAM</h2>
As AI deployments scale, storage demand is rising in step with compute. Advanced accelerators and AI servers increasingly rely on <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1236/solid-state-drives" rel="noopener" target="_blank">high-capacity enterprise SSDs</a> to support fast data access, model updates, and inference workloads.
With NAND supply tightening, pricing dynamics are beginning to resemble those seen in DRAM. Reduced output, coupled with rising demand across AI servers, PCs, and mobile devices, is expected to drive broader shortages and margin expansion across the NAND ecosystem.
Early indicators are already visible. NAND prices are projected to rise between 33% and 38% in the first quarter of 2026 alone. At the same time, annual supply growth is expected to remain around 17%, well below historical averages, as suppliers maintain a conservative production stance.
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">Why NAND Remains a Lower Investment Priority</h2>
Several structural factors explain why NAND supply is tightening despite clear demand signals.
First, NAND continues to rank below DRAM in capital allocation priority. DRAM, particularly HBM, offers significantly higher margins, pulling both tooling and investment away from storage.
Second, the industry’s transition toward QLC technology, which is better suited for AI data center workloads, introduces natural production inefficiencies. Yield losses during these transitions further constrain effective output, even when wafer starts remain steady.
Finally, suppliers are using disciplined production as a strategic lever. By limiting supply during a strong demand environment, manufacturers can protect pricing power, improve margins, and counter low-cost competition from Chinese producers such as YMTC.
The result is a supply environment that is intentionally tight rather than temporarily constrained.
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">What This Means for Consumer Devices</h2>
As higher-margin enterprise demand absorbs available NAND capacity, downstream markets are beginning to feel the pressure.
<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/surging-memory-chip-prices-dim-outlook-consumer-electronics-makers-2026-01-22/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Rather than passing higher component costs directly to consumers, many OEMs are adjusting device configurations to preserve retail price points.</a> Smartphones expected to move toward higher standard storage tiers are holding at current levels. Entry-level laptops are being re-standardized with smaller or slower SSDs, reversing years of steady capacity expansion.
This shift marks a clear departure from the long-standing trend of more storage at stable prices.
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">A Two-Tiered Market Is Taking Shape</h2>
Changes in commercial terms further reinforce the imbalance. Some NAND suppliers are now requiring full cash prepayment on long-term supply agreements extending through 2027.
These terms shift financing risk away from suppliers and onto buyers, effectively requiring customers to fund future capacity upfront. Hyperscalers and Tier-1 OEMs are better positioned to absorb these requirements. Others are left competing for remaining supply with less pricing leverage and limited visibility.
The result is a two-tiered market. Access to NAND is increasingly determined by capital strength and commitment, not just demand.
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">What to Watch Going Forward</h2>
With utilization near capacity and production discipline firmly in place, NAND availability is becoming a gating factor in procurement and product planning decisions.
Because new fab capacity takes 18 to 24 months to come online, meaningful relief is unlikely before late 2026 or early 2027. Until then, elevated pricing, selective allocation, and tighter contract terms are expected to remain the baseline across the NAND market.
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As supply tightens, visibility matters. Our NAND catalog offers a current view of availability and pricing. <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1200/flash" rel="noopener" target="_blank">See what our NAND stock looks like.</a>
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">Frequently Asked Questions</h2>
<h3 style="font-size: 20px;">&nbsp;</h3>
<h3 style="font-size: 20px;">Why does the 2026 NAND environment differ from past cycles?</h3>
This cycle reflects delayed investment rather than short-term demand volatility. Capital reductions during the downturn limited today’s available capacity just as storage-intensive AI workloads accelerated.
<h3 style="font-size: 20px;">What risks do upfront payment requirements create?</h3>
They tie up buyer capital for multiple years, transfer pricing risk to customers, and reduce flexibility if demand or technology requirements change.
<h3 style="font-size: 20px;">Will consumers see higher prices in 2026?</h3>
In many cases, changes will appear through device configurations rather than retail pricing, most notably smaller baseline storage capacities.
<h3 style="font-size: 20px;">Is this limited to AI infrastructure?</h3>
No. Capacity allocated to enterprise SSDs reduces availability across consumer, industrial, automotive, and IoT segments.
<h3 style="font-size: 20px;">When could conditions stabilize?</h3>
Normalization is unlikely before late 2026 or early 2027, given the time required for new NAND capacity to ramp.
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For much of the past year, attention across the semiconductor market has centered on DRAM constraints, particularly the rapid rise of High Bandwidth Memory tied to AI infrastructure. As suppliers redirected capital and tooling toward higher-margin applications, other segments of the memory market were left increasingly constrained.

Nexperia Supply Chain Update 2026

Global export restrictions have frozen Nexperia’s supply chain. Learn how U.S., China, and Dutch policies are reshaping semiconductor sourcing in 2025.

The Nexperia supply disruption has entered a more volatile phase. Entering January 2026, buyers are facing simultaneous pressure from unresolved legal disputes, constrained wafer supply, and shrinking alternate capacity — a combination that is accelerating allocation risk and reducing visibility across the first half of the year.
For customers dependent on Nexperia components, the challenge is no longer predicting when supply will normalize, but how to manage exposure as conditions continue to shift week by week.

Updated on January 20, 2026
<h2 style="font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;">January 2026 Update: Legal Dispute Moves to Court</h2>
On January 14, representatives from Nexperia Netherlands and Wingtech appeared in court in the Netherlands for an initial hearing related to the ongoing ownership and control dispute.
By multiple accounts, the meeting was tense, with both sides blaming the other for the current state of disruption. During the hearing, lawyers representing Nexperia EMEA accused Wingtech of pursuing a “scorched earth” strategy aimed at destabilizing the company. <a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/battle-over-chinese-owned-chipmaker-nexperia-rages-in-dutch-court/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">According to reporting from Courthouse News,</a> Nexperia attorney Jeroen van der Schrieck stated that Wingtech is “doing everything to destabilize Nexperia” in its attempt to wrest control of the business.
The Dutch court is expected to decide by early February whether a full investigation is warranted — a decision that could further delay clarity for customers already facing unconfirmed orders and tightening availability.
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<h2 style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 24px;">Manufacturing and Wafer Supply Constraints Intensify</h2>
Legal uncertainty continues to be compounded by operational challenges:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nexperia-suspends-supplies-wafers-chinese-assembly-plant-letter-shows-2025-10-31/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Wafer supply into Nexperia China has remained halted since October</a>, with no confirmed restart timeline</li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/nexperias-chinese-owner-wingtech-says-it-is-selecting-local-wafer-suppliers-2026-01-09/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Nexperia China is actively attempting to qualify alternate wafer suppliers</a>, but automotive-grade diodes and transistor products remain without a qualified source, leaving these categories most exposed</li>
<li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/malaysia-reins-data-centre-growth-complicating-chinas-ai-chip-access-2025-09-12/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Nexperia Netherlands has reportedly accelerated efforts to shift assembly away from China to Malaysia in order to reduce geopolitical risk</a></li>
</ul>
However, sources indicate the Malaysia transition was rushed, and facilities are not yet able to absorb the added volume or product complexity. As a result, some customers are being advised that new Nexperia material may not be available until July 2026 or later, particularly for higher-risk legacy devices.
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<h2>How the Nexperia Supply Chain Disruption Started</h2>
While January’s developments have intensified the situation, the roots of this disruption extend back further.
Nexperia is headquartered in the Netherlands but operates with significant manufacturing and wafer-sourcing ties to China following its acquisition by Wingtech. For years, this structure allowed Nexperia to function as a globally integrated supplier while maintaining European governance.
That balance began to erode in 2024 as regulatory scrutiny increased — particularly from Dutch authorities — around Chinese ownership of strategically important semiconductor assets. Concerns centered on governance, control, and national security implications.
As oversight increased, coordination between Nexperia’s Dutch operations and its Chinese ownership structure deteriorated. What began as a governance dispute gradually translated into operational disruption, culminating in the October halt of wafer supply into Nexperia China.
At the time, many customers assumed the issue would be resolved within months and secured limited coverage for late 2025 and early 2026. That assumption is now proving overly optimistic.
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">Buyer Response Shifts From Coverage to Risk Containment</h2>
As confidence in near-term recovery has faded, buyer behavior has shifted materially:
<ul>
<li>A growing number of OEMs are refusing to accept Nexperia components with COO China date codes 2542 and later, citing traceability, compliance, and long-term reliability concerns</li>
<li>In parts of Asia, some manufacturers are proceeding cautiously with these parts but internally classifying them as “risk components,” assigning new internal part numbers to preserve traceability</li>
</ul>
The automotive sector is already feeling the impact. Industry groups are warning that shortages tied to Nexperia — and its alternates — could persist well into 2026. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/honda-extends-china-plants-suspension-chip-shortage-2026-01-05/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Honda has extended production shutdowns in China and Japan due to component shortages linked to this disruption.</a>
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">Nexperia Alternates Enter Allocation</h2>
Many buyers attempted to mitigate risk by qualifying alternate manufacturers, but demand has surged faster than expected:
<ul>
<li>Lead times for replacements from onsemi, Vishay, and Diodes Incorporated have extended significantly</li>
<li>Several alternate series have entered allocation, limiting late-stage sourcing flexibility</li>
<li>Customers that transitioned early to alternates are now reporting continued delivery delays into CQ2 and beyond</li>
</ul>
This second wave of constraint is tightening supply across both primary and alternate channels simultaneously.
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<h2>Most Requested Nexperia Series (January 2026)</h2>
As availability narrows, demand has concentrated around a limited set of high-usage devices:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/product/3724237/PESD24VF1BLYL" rel="noopener" target="_blank">PESD2</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/product/4307158/BZX84-B3V6-QVL" rel="noopener" target="_blank">BZX84</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/product/4294716/74LVC2G34GW-Q100-1" rel="noopener" target="_blank">74LVC</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/product/4307593/PMEG40T50EP-QX" rel="noopener" target="_blank">PMEG4</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/product/4307142/BZX384-C24-Q" rel="noopener" target="_blank">BZX38</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/product/4307699/PESD18VF1BBSFYL" rel="noopener" target="_blank">PESD1</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/product/3724334/PESD5V0U1BB-115" rel="noopener" target="_blank">PESD5</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/product/4307693/BZX585-C4V7-QX" rel="noopener" target="_blank">BZX58</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/product/4284041/BAT54-QVL" rel="noopener" target="_blank">BAT54</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/product/4307603/74HCT1G02GW-Q100-1" rel="noopener" target="_blank">74HCT</a></li>
</ul>
These series are seeing heightened pricing pressure and rapidly changing availability as buyers compete for limited supply.
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">Buyer Outlook: What to Expect Next</h2>
The Nexperia situation has evolved from a short-term governance issue into a structural supply-chain risk. With legal proceedings unresolved, wafer supply constrained, manufacturing transitions under strain, and alternates tightening, volatility is expected to continue through at least the first half of 2026.
For procurement teams reviewing spring and summer delivery schedules, the risk is immediate. Early engagement, diversified sourcing strategies, and continuous market monitoring remain critical as conditions continue to shift.
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<h2 style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 24px;">Stay Ahead of What Comes Next</h2>
As Nexperia’s supply chain continues to operate under structural constraints, early visibility and verified sourcing remain critical. Fusion Worldwide supports customers with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/manufacturers/109/NEXP" rel="noopener" target="_blank">authenticated Nexperia inventory</a>&nbsp;and qualified alternates across key product families — helping mitigate risk before availability tightens again.
For a broader view on how leading organizations are preparing for disruptions like this more proactively, explore&nbsp;<a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/agentic-ai-preparing-for-the-hybrid-infrastructure-surge" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Fusion Worldwide’s Agentic AI Market Intelligence Report,&nbsp;</a>which outlines how autonomous, data-driven intelligence is changing how supply risk is identified and managed.
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 style="font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;">Frequently Asked Questions</h2>
<h3 data-start="471" data-end="529">1. Is Nexperia supply expected to improve in 2026?</h3>
Supply improvement in 2026 remains uncertain. While some buyers expected stabilization in early 2026, unresolved legal disputes, wafer supply gaps, and manufacturing constraints suggest continued volatility through at least the first half of the year. Even if governance issues progress, production recovery is unlikely to be immediate.
<h3 style="font-size: 20px;" data-start="873" data-end="972">2. Does the January court case between Nexperia and Wingtech change near-term availability?</h3>
No. The January court proceedings between Nexperia and Wingtech primarily affect long-term governance and control. They do not restart wafer supply, accelerate manufacturing, or guarantee order confirmations. Buyers should not assume court outcomes will translate into near-term material flow.
<h3 style="font-size: 20px;" data-start="1306" data-end="1383">3. Are approved Nexperia alternates still a reliable sourcing option?</h3>
Alternates are becoming increasingly constrained. As more customers shifted simultaneously to replacements, demand exceeded planned capacity, pushing many alternate series into allocation and extending lead times. Approval alone no longer guarantees availability, particularly for legacy discretes and logic devices.
<h3 style="font-size: 20px;" data-start="1707" data-end="1780">4. Should buyers accept Nexperia parts with China COO date codes?</h3>
This depends on compliance requirements and risk tolerance. Some OEMs reject China COO material due to traceability or regulatory concerns, while others accept it but internally classify the parts as higher-risk inventory. The key consideration is long-term exposure, not just short-term availability.
<h3 style="font-size: 20px;" data-start="2089" data-end="2168">5. Why are automotive programs more exposed to the Nexperia disruption?</h3>
Automotive programs rely heavily on legacy components, long validation cycles, and fixed BOMs. Even minor shortages can halt production, and mid-cycle part changes are difficult to execute. This makes both Nexperia shortages and alternate constraints more disruptive for automotive than other sectors.
<h3 data-start="2477" data-end="2553">6. What is the biggest sourcing mistake buyers are making right now?</h3>
The most common mistake is assuming the disruption will resolve before impacting their program. Buyers who delayed action in late 2025 are now re-entering the market under tighter availability and higher pricing. Preserving optionality early has proven more effective than reacting later.

The Nexperia supply disruption has entered a more volatile phase. Entering January 2026, buyers are facing simultaneous pressure from unresolved legal disputes, constrained wafer supply, and shrinking alternate capacity — a combination that is accelerating allocation risk and reducing visibility across the first half of the year.
For customers dependent on Nexperia components, the challenge is no longer predicting when supply will normalize, but how to manage exposure as conditions continue to shift week by week.

Automotive production line with vehicle assembly, illustrating DRAM supply gaps impacting automotive manufacturing in 2026.

Will DRAM Shortages Threaten Automotive Production in 2026?

Automotive OEMs face growing memory risk in 2026 as AI demand tightens DRAM supply, limits visibility, and raises costs across EV and ADAS platforms.

Automotive OEM buyers are returning to work in 2026 with a clear disconnect between forecasts and costs.&nbsp;After planning for 2026 under the assumption that DRAM supply and pricing would cool off post-holidays,&nbsp;buyers are finding that major memory manufacturers are preparing for disciplined quarterly price hikes of 20 to 70 percent across DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR, and&nbsp;automotive-grade&nbsp;GDDR. New orders now quote with lead times longer than&nbsp;58 weeks, and Korean DRAM suppliers are only committing to quarterly allocations. Memory cost inflation is becoming a front-and-center risk inside 2026 vehicle Bills of Materials.&nbsp;

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<h2 style="font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;" aria-level="2">How did DRAM become a problem for Automotive OEMs right as the year turned?&nbsp;</h2>
DRAM pressure intensified as AI infrastructure demand accelerated into year-end, consuming a growing share of global memory output just as automotive 2026 forecasts were being&nbsp;finalized. <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/resources/the-cost-of-ai-how-hyperscaler-spending-is-impacting-semiconductor-supply" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Hyperscale datacenters and next-generation AI accelerators require unprecedented memory density</a>, pulling DRAM supply out of the broader market. At the same time, memory manufacturers entered the year with limited production flexibility and increasingly prioritized higher-margin products like HBM, reducing the volume of standard DRAM available to other end markets.&nbsp;
With no meaningful new capacity expected to come online in 2026, suppliers have shifted toward shorter-term commitments and limited forward guidance. Rather than providing annual visibility, memory manufacturers are increasingly managing supply and pricing on a quarter-by-quarter basis. That approach reflects both demand concentration and constrained capacity, and it leaves Automotive OEM buyers without the long-range clarity needed to confidently align memory supply with vehicle production plans.&nbsp;
Under these conditions, incremental price increases are becoming more likely as the year progresses. While the pace and timing are still evolving, the structure of the market favors periodic adjustments rather than stabilization. For Automotive OEM buyers, the risk is not just higher DRAM costs — it is planning against a market where visibility&nbsp;remains&nbsp;limited&nbsp;and pricing is adjusted in response to near-term conditions rather than long-term forecasts.&nbsp;
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;">Why&nbsp;EV and ADAS Systems Are&nbsp;Driving Higher Memory Demand in Automotive Production in 2026?&nbsp;</h2>
Vehicles now carry far more onboard&nbsp;compute&nbsp;and electronics than memory&nbsp;supply&nbsp;can easily&nbsp;support. EV platforms increasingly rely on centralized&nbsp;compute, high-resolution displays, persistent connectivity, and software-defined control systems, all of which materially raise DRAM demand per vehicle. In practice, EV designs now consume up to five times more DRAM than lower-content internal combustion models, particularly across infotainment, telematics, battery-management systems, and centralized vehicle controllers.&nbsp;
Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) further intensify that exposure. These systems require high-bandwidth memory to support vision processing, sensor fusion, radar analytics, and real-time decision workloads. Automotive-grade <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1202/ram" rel="noopener" target="_blank">LPDDR and GDDR6/7</a> are embedded directly into ADAS compute modules, and those requirements are already locked into 2026 vehicle designs. Once integrated at this level, memory demand cannot be meaningfully reduced without redesigning the platform.&nbsp;
The impact is not evenly distributed. Manufacturers&nbsp;operating&nbsp;advanced zonal architectures with heavy ADAS reliance, including Tesla and Rivian, face greater exposure due to significantly higher DRAM density per vehicle.<a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/chinas-car-market-strain-and-component-demand" rel="noopener" target="_blank"> Geographic design choices compound the issue.</a> Vehicles produced for the Chinese market typically carry&nbsp;roughly 50 percent&nbsp;more DRAM than those built for North America or Europe, driven by higher adoption of advanced cockpit features and digital interfaces.&nbsp;
As Automotive OEMs continue to&nbsp;scale&nbsp;electronics&nbsp;capability to meet performance, safety, and consumer expectations, they are doing so alongside a memory market that&nbsp;remains&nbsp;constrained and increasingly oriented toward AI hardware. That overlap turns rising DRAM usage into a tangible cost and planning risk for automotive production in 2026.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;">What lessons does the&nbsp;Nexperia&nbsp;crisis&nbsp;offer&nbsp;Automotive OEM buyers evaluating DRAM risk?&nbsp;</h2>
The&nbsp;Nexperia&nbsp;crisis has shown Automotive OEM buyers how quickly semiconductor assumptions can unravel. <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/nexperia-supply-chain-update-2025-global-market-impact-and-buyer-strategy" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Ongoing conflict between&nbsp;Nexperia&nbsp;Netherlands and&nbsp;Nexperia&nbsp;China disrupted wafer supply</a>, sparked legal disputes with&nbsp;Wingtech, and forced many customers back to the open market to cover immediate production gaps. As overflow demand spread to alternate discrete semiconductor suppliers like On Semi, TI, SILABS, Vishay, Renesas, Infineon, and Diodes Inc., lead times extended and even previously stable parts entered allocation. Recent Honda production shutdowns due to supply shortages reinforced how directly vehicle manufacturing can be affected by a single&nbsp;component&nbsp;constraint.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Automotive OEM buyers are now viewing memory through that same lens. If DRAM prices continue climbing every quarter while suppliers only commit to short-term allocations, Automotive OEM buyers may soon face similar supply gaps in <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1202/ram" rel="noopener" target="_blank">DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR, and automotive-grade GDDR.</a> The experience with&nbsp;Nexperia&nbsp;has made it clear: in 2026, relying on narrow vendor lists and optimistic delivery assumptions leaves Automotive OEM buyers exposed to both higher costs and harder-to-secure supply.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-weight: normal; font-size: 24px;" aria-level="2">How are NAND, NOR Flash, and eMMC trends&nbsp;adding to&nbsp;concerns for Automotive OEM buyers entering 2026?&nbsp;</h2>
DRAM is not the only memory category tightening as the year turns<a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1200/flash?manufacturers=219" rel="noopener" target="_blank">. Industrial-grade eMMC devices</a> used across vehicle control modules are&nbsp;quoting with&nbsp;rapidly extending lead times because manufacturers are focusing on higher-margin memory types. One Automotive OEM buyer reported a 200 percent price increase on eMMC devices to&nbsp;start&nbsp;2026.&nbsp;
NAND and NOR Flash deliveries are also entering the new year unstable. Intelligence from Winbond,&nbsp;Macronix, and ESMT suggests suppliers cannot confirm 2026 supply or provide quotations. Micron&nbsp;reportedly cannot&nbsp;guarantee NOR Flash fulfillment for some VIP customers, and lead times&nbsp;continue&nbsp;stretching rapidly.&nbsp;
For Automotive OEM buyers that depend on multiple memory types across infotainment, ADAS, and control electronics, each category constraint increases the overall risk profile inside 2026 vehicle Bills of Materials.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;" aria-level="2">What does this mean for Automotive OEM buyers planning vehicles as 2026 begins?&nbsp;</h2>
Tip:&nbsp;Sync with your Tier 1 Suppliers and CMs in advance to make sure their future memory deliveries are confirmed&nbsp;
Quarterly DRAM price hikes are changing the economics of entire vehicle platforms from the first weeks of&nbsp;2026. Rising memory content affects more than just the price of a chip—it reshapes program budgets, supplier negotiations, and long-term vehicle profitability.&nbsp;
Automotive OEM buyers must now:&nbsp;
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1199/memory" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Qualify memory alternates early in 2026&nbsp;</a></li>
<li>Update vehicle BOM forecasts assuming recurring quarterly DRAM hikes&nbsp;</li>
<li>Move purchases earlier rather than waiting&nbsp;</li>
<li>Plan regionally for APAC and EMEA impacts&nbsp;</li>
<li>Coordinate across engineering and procurement to reduce qualification churn&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
Those who adapt their strategy as the year turns will be better positioned to protect costs and schedules throughout 2026.&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-weight: bold;">&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 style="font-weight: normal;" aria-level="2">How can Automotive OEM buyers navigate rising costs and constrained DRAM supply right now?&nbsp;</h2>
The best action for Automotive OEM buyers entering 2026 is earlier engagement. Independent distributors provide flexibility and options that DRAM suppliers in Korea are no longer offering. The open market offers immediate inventory snapshots and recent offers across&nbsp;automotive grade&nbsp;DDR5, LPDDR, GDDR, NAND, NOR Flash, and eMMC. Availability changes nightly, but early-year engagement gives Automotive OEM buyers real&nbsp;levers to control costs before each new quarter brings another DRAM price hike.&nbsp;
Buyers who start the year acting on realistic memory intelligence rather than outdated assumptions will be in the strongest position to protect vehicle BOMs and production timelines throughout 2026.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-weight: normal; font-size: 24px;" aria-level="2">Bottom Line&nbsp;</h2>
Automotive OEMs are exposed to memory-driven supply risk in&nbsp;2026.&nbsp;Ongoing DRAM shortages,&nbsp;limited forward visibility, and extended lead times increase the likelihood of production impact if supply gaps&nbsp;emerge. Automotive OEM buyers&nbsp;should be reviewing&nbsp;2026 memory coverage now and&nbsp;assessing&nbsp;whether buffer inventory is&nbsp;required&nbsp;to protect vehicle builds and BOM stability.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1202/ram" rel="noopener" target="_blank">See current automotive-grade memory availability.</a>
<h2 style="font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;">&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 style="font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;">Frequently Asked Questions</h2>
<h3 data-start="206" data-end="262">Why is automotive memory supply tight in 2026?</h3>
Automotive memory supply is constrained due to rising AI infrastructure demand, limited DRAM production capacity, and manufacturers prioritizing higher-margin memory products. These dynamics reduce available supply for automotive applications and limit forward visibility for OEM buyers.
<h3 style="font-size: 20px;" data-start="557" data-end="633">Which memory types pose the highest risk to automotive production?</h3>
The greatest exposure is in automotive-grade DRAM, particularly LPDDR and GDDR used in EV and Advanced Driver Assistance Systems. Additional risk exists in DDR4, eMMC, NAND, and NOR Flash as lead times extend and supplier confirmation remains limited.
<h3 style="font-size: 20px;" data-start="892" data-end="959">Why does AI demand affect automotive memory availability?</h3>
AI platforms consume significantly more memory per system than traditional computing workloads. As suppliers prioritize these high-density applications, less capacity is available for automotive programs even when overall DRAM output appears stable.
<h3 style="font-size: 20px;" data-start="1216" data-end="1284">Are EV and ADAS vehicles more exposed to memory shortages?</h3>
Yes. EV platforms and ADAS-equipped vehicles require substantially more onboard compute and memory than legacy models. In some cases, these vehicles carry multiple times the DRAM content of traditional designs, increasing sensitivity to supply constraints.
<h3 data-start="1548" data-end="1630">Why is memory now a visibility problem rather than just a pricing issue?</h3>
Many suppliers are limiting guidance to short-term outlooks instead of confirming full-year supply. This lack of forward visibility makes it difficult for Automotive OEMs to align memory procurement with vehicle production plans.
<h3 data-start="1867" data-end="1942">What should Automotive OEMs do now to reduce memory risk in 2026?</h3>
Automotive OEMs should review 2026 memory coverage early, validate supply assumptions, qualify alternates where possible, and assess whether buffer inventory is needed to protect production schedules and BOM stability.
&nbsp;

Automotive OEM buyers are returning to work in 2026 with a clear disconnect between forecasts and costs.&nbsp;After planning for 2026 under the assumption that DRAM supply and pricing would cool off post-holidays,&nbsp;buyers are finding that major memory manufacturers are preparing for disciplined quarterly price hikes of 20 to 70 percent across DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR, and&nbsp;automotive-grade&nbsp;GDDR. New orders now quote with lead times longer than&nbsp;58 weeks, and Korean DRAM suppliers are only committing to quarterly allocations. Memory cost inflation is becoming a front-and-center risk inside 2026 vehicle Bills of Materials.&nbsp;

Don’t Just Source Components, Future-Proof Your Supply Chain. Join Fusion Worldwide at NEPCON Tokyo 2026, Booth E23.

Visit Fusion Worldwide at NEPCON Tokyo 2026 to explore its new Agentic AI Intelligence Report on hybrid infrastructure and resilient electronics supply chains.

At Fusion Worldwide, we&nbsp;don’t&nbsp;just follow technology,&nbsp;we help shape how&nbsp;it’s&nbsp;deployed, scaled, and sustained in the real world. As a global leader in&nbsp;electronics&nbsp;component&nbsp;supply chain solutions, we enable OEMs and EMS providers to navigate&nbsp;sourcing&nbsp;complexity, mitigate risk, and accelerate innovation&nbsp;especially as AI transforms every layer of the product lifecycle.&nbsp;
That&nbsp;is why we&nbsp;are&nbsp;excited to announce our participation at NEPCON Tokyo 2026&nbsp;(Booth E23)&nbsp;the premier global event for electronics manufacturing and smart factory innovation. And this year,&nbsp;we’re&nbsp;bringing more than just components,&nbsp;we’re&nbsp;bringing vision.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<h2>2025 Intelligence Report&nbsp;on&nbsp;Agentic AI: Preparing for the Hybrid Infrastructure Surge.&nbsp;</h2>
At NEPCON, we will be unveiling key insights from our newly published intelligence report: <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/agentic-ai-preparing-for-the-hybrid-infrastructure-surge" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Agentic AI: Preparing for the Hybrid Infrastructure&nbsp;Surge</a>
Why does this matter to the electronics industry?&nbsp;
Because agentic AI&nbsp;or&nbsp;autonomous systems that reason, act, and collaborate across workflows&nbsp;is already redefining how companies design, source, manufacture, and service electronic products. Early adopters are achieving 10% to 25% EBITDA gains by embedding AI not just as a tool, but as an active agent in their operations.&nbsp;
Our report reveals:&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>How leading enterprises are moving beyond pilots to embed AI into core workflows&nbsp;</li>
<li>The four levels of agentic AI maturity&nbsp;and where electronics manufacturers stand today&nbsp;</li>
<li>Why data quality, process redesign, and pragmatic architecture matter more than “perfect” AI models&nbsp;</li>
<li>Real-world challenges&nbsp;related to agentic AI&nbsp;such as increased&nbsp;data silos, IP protection, vendor lock-in, and human-in-the-loop oversight. &nbsp;</li>
</ul>
And for the first time,&nbsp;we’ll&nbsp;connect these AI transformation principles directly to the electronics supply chain,&nbsp;showing how intelligent agents can&nbsp;optimize&nbsp;component&nbsp;sourcing, predict obsolescence, accelerate NPI cycles, and strengthen supply resilience.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">Meet Marcus Chen, Our Newly Promoted Executive President&nbsp;</h2>
We&nbsp;are&nbsp;honoured&nbsp;to have<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/marcus-chen-a585b340/" rel="noopener" target="_blank"> Marcus Chen,</a> Fusion&nbsp;Worldwide’s&nbsp;newly promoted Executive President, on-site at NEPCON Tokyo 2026. With deep&nbsp;expertise&nbsp;in global technology ecosystems and supply chain innovation, Marcus will be leading live discussions on how agentic AI can solve the industry’s toughest operational challenges.&nbsp;
Stop by our booth to:&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>Get a printed copy of the full&nbsp;Intelligence Report on Agentic AI&nbsp;</li>
<li>Speak with Marcus and our AI &amp; supply chain experts&nbsp;</li>
<li>Discover how Fusion is integrating intelligent workflows into real-world electronics manufacturing&nbsp;</li>
<li>Explore pilot opportunities for AI-driven supply chain resilience&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">Your Invitation: Secure VIP Access to NEPCON Tokyo 2026&nbsp;</h2>
We’ve&nbsp;reserved complimentary VIP passes for our partners, clients, and industry peers who want front-row access to the future of intelligent manufacturing.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.nepconjapan.jp/tokyo/en-gb/register.html?code=1523464029402509-LU2">Register for Your VIP Ticket Through Fusion Worldwide</a>&nbsp; &nbsp;
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">What is&nbsp;NEPCON?&nbsp;</h2>
NEPCON Japan is Asia’s leading electronics technology exhibition, focusing on electronics R&amp;D, manufacturing, and packaging technologies.&nbsp;It’s&nbsp;a major hub for professionals in semiconductors, automotive electronics, telecommunications, and advanced manufacturing.&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">When and where is&nbsp;NEPCON&nbsp;2026&nbsp;taking place?&nbsp;</h2>
<ul>
<li>Dates: January 21–23, 2026 (Wednesday–Friday)&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Time: 10:00 AM – 5:00 PM (JST)&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Venue: Tokyo Big Sight, Ariake, Tokyo, Japan&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Organizer: RX Japan Ltd.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">What is Fusion&nbsp;Worldwide’s&nbsp;role at&nbsp;NEPCON 2026?&nbsp;</h2>
Fusion Worldwide will be&nbsp;exhibiting&nbsp;in&nbsp;Electronic&nbsp;Components &amp;&nbsp;Materials Expo Hall, Booth E23 at NEPCON 2026. Fusion's team of experts will be available for one-on-one consultations to discuss how they can help businesses navigate supply chain challenges and find hard-to-source electronic components.&nbsp;
&nbsp;

At Fusion Worldwide, we&nbsp;don’t&nbsp;just follow technology,&nbsp;we help shape how&nbsp;it’s&nbsp;deployed, scaled, and sustained in the real world. As a global leader in&nbsp;electronics&nbsp;component&nbsp;supply chain solutions, we enable OEMs and EMS providers to navigate&nbsp;sourcing&nbsp;complexity, mitigate risk, and accelerate innovation&nbsp;especially as AI transforms every layer of the product lifecycle.&nbsp;

Illustration of an AI processor cube with connected circuits, visualizing the difference between agentic AI and generative AI infrastructure.

Agentic AI vs Generative AI

As AI shifts from generative to agentic systems, infrastructure requirements change—reshaping demand for HBM, DDR5, edge compute, and hybrid AI environments.

The first wave of AI adoption was defined by what systems could generate: text, images, code, and predictions delivered one output at a time. These models were powerful, but fundamentally reactive. They waited for an instruction, produced a result, and stopped.

The shift to agentic AI represents a different kind of intelligence entirely. Instead of responding to isolated prompts, agents operate continuously. They interpret context, sequence decisions, interact with tools, and manage tasks in a way that resembles operational workflows rather than one-off queries. This evolution may appear incremental from the outside, but the technical and infrastructural demands behind it are not. <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/agentic-ai-preparing-for-the-hybrid-infrastructure-surge" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Fusion Worldwide's </a><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/agentic-ai-preparing-for-the-hybrid-infrastructure-surge" rel="noopener" target="_blank">State of Agentic AI report</a> outlines how this transition is already reshaping hardware strategy across industries.
This distinction — reactive output versus autonomous operation — is what separates generative AI from agentic AI and why the underlying hardware requirements are now diverging.
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;">Why Generative AI Worked on Existing Infrastructure</h2>
Generative AI scaled quickly because its behavior aligned with the systems the industry already had. Cloud data centers were built for large, compute-intensive tasks that run in discrete bursts, which is exactly how generative models behave. Training demanded enormous GPU clusters, but inference was intermittent, stateless, and tolerant of latency.
Infrastructure mattered, but it did not need to change. The cloud absorbed most of the load, GPUs handled acceleration, and the rest of the stack stayed largely intact. <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/agentic-ai-preparing-for-the-hybrid-infrastructure-surge" rel="noopener" target="_blank">As the report shows</a>, that alignment is now breaking as enterprises deploy agentic systems that require constant, context-aware operation.
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;">Why Agentic AI Breaks That Model</h2>
Agentic systems function more like continuous operations than applications. They maintain memory, update context over time, make decisions across connected environments, and interact with both digital and physical systems. These behaviors push against several foundational assumptions in modern computing:
<ul>
<li> They require low-latency execution. Agents cannot wait for cloud round trips when decisions must happen in milliseconds — a challenge explored in depth in the report’s analysis of hybrid adoption.</li>
<li> They depend on persistent context. This creates sustained pressure on memory bandwidth and on-chip data movement, putting HBM and advanced packaging at the center of performance. <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/agentic-ai-preparing-for-the-hybrid-infrastructure-surge" rel="noopener" target="_blank">The report highlights how fast these components are tightening.</a></li>
<li> They run continuously. Unlike generative AI, which consumes compute in bursts, agentic systems operate without pause — dramatically increasing demand for localized compute, power, cooling, and networking.</li>
<li> They interact with sensitive data. Many agentic workloads require regulated or proprietary data that cannot leave controlled environments, accelerating the shift toward on-premises and edge systems.</li>
</ul>
These demands do not eliminate cloud use, but they require an expanded architecture capable of supporting workloads that behave like living systems rather than transactions.
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;">The Infrastructure Agentic AI Requires</h2>
The emerging architecture for agentic AI is distributed, hybrid, and deeply dependent on hardware characteristics that were previously secondary. <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/agentic-ai-preparing-for-the-hybrid-infrastructure-surge" rel="noopener" target="_blank">The State of Agentic AI report</a> outlines this transition across three core layers:
1.) Local and Edge Compute
Enterprises are placing compute closer to where decisions occur. Compact AI SoCs, inference accelerators, and edge systems reduce latency and provide the control required for sensitive or operational workloads.
2.) On-Premises Mini Data Centers
These environments anchor real-time processing, persistent state, and regulated data. They rely on a mix of GPUs, specialized accelerators, next-gen CPUs, and increasingly critical components such as <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1208/memory-modules" rel="noopener" target="_blank">HBM</a>, <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1208/memory-modules?Memory+Technology=DDR5" rel="noopener" target="_blank">DDR5</a>, PCIe 5.0/6.0, and high-density storage. <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/agentic-ai-preparing-for-the-hybrid-infrastructure-surge" rel="noopener" target="_blank">The report</a> details where demand is rising fastest across these categories.
3.) Cloud for Scale and Coordination
Training, model updates, simulation, and <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/resources/the-cost-of-ai-how-hyperscaler-spending-is-impacting-semiconductor-supply" rel="noopener" target="_blank">surge workloads still rely on hyperscalers.</a> But cloud becomes one layer of a larger ecosystem, not the exclusive destination for AI.
Across these layers, memory bandwidth, networking throughput, and power availability now carry as much weight as raw compute. These shifts are tracked closely in the report’s component-level outlook.
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-weight: bold;">The Workflow Behind Autonomy — and the Hardware Behind It</h2>
An agentic system moves through a cycle of perception, retrieval, reasoning, planning, and execution. Each of these stages imposes targeted hardware requirements:
<ul>
<li>Perception requires fast data ingestion, networking, and low-latency access.</li>
<li>Retrieval relies on HBM and optimized data paths.</li>
<li>Reasoning places sustained load on accelerators and CPUs.</li>
<li>Planning and action demand reliable local compute.</li>
<li>Continuous loops increase consumption across power, cooling, and advanced packaging.</li>
</ul>
This is why autonomy cannot simply be “scaled” on cloud GPUs. The workflow itself forces compute to redistribute. The report provides guidance on how buyers can prepare for these shifts before capacity tightens further.
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;">What Buyers Should Take From This Shift</h2>
Agentic AI is not a software milestone — it is a hardware event. For procurement leaders and infrastructure teams, the implications are immediate:
<ul>
<li>HBM is emerging as the defining bottleneck for next-generation systems.</li>
<li>DDR5 and new interfaces (PCIe 6.0, CXL) will reset memory architecture roadmaps.</li>
<li>Edge and modular data centers will expand faster than traditional cloud workloads.</li>
<li>High-speed optics and switching will play a central role in distributed intelligence.</li>
<li>Power and cooling demand will rise sharply as continuous workloads scale.</li>
</ul>
These forces are shaping the next five years of sourcing, pricing, and lead-time dynamics — outlined extensively in the <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/agentic-ai-preparing-for-the-hybrid-infrastructure-surge" rel="noopener" target="_blank">State of Agentic AI report.</a>
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;">The Bottom Line</h2>
Generative AI worked within the system the industry already had. Agentic AI requires a system built for what comes next—one defined by autonomy, distribution, and continuous operation.
To understand how this shift will impact component markets, sourcing strategies, and hybrid AI infrastructure over the next five years, download the full<a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/agentic-ai-preparing-for-the-hybrid-infrastructure-surge" rel="noopener" target="_blank" id="__hsNewLink"> State of Agentic AI report.</a>
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;">Frequently Asked Questions</h2>
<h3>What is the core difference between generative AI and agentic AI?</h3>
Generative AI responds to isolated prompts, while agentic AI runs continuously, maintains context, and performs multi-step operations—requiring a different infrastructure strategy.
<h3 style="font-size: 20px; font-weight: bold;">Why can’t agentic AI run on the same infrastructure as generative AI?</h3>
Autonomy depends on persistent state, low-latency execution, and high memory bandwidth. These place pressure on edge compute, HBM, DDR5, and networking components highlighted throughout the report.
<h3 style="font-size: 20px; font-weight: bold;">Which components are most affected by the shift?</h3>
HBM, DDR5, GPUs and accelerators, advanced packaging, and 400G/800G optics are entering multi-year demand cycles. The report provides category-by-category analysis.
<h3 style="font-size: 20px; font-weight: bold;">Why is hybrid infrastructure becoming standard?</h3>
Cloud alone cannot support continuous, real-time workloads. Distributed architectures allow agents to operate faster and more securely. The report explains how enterprises are adopting on-prem mini data centers and edge systems.
&nbsp;
<a href="https://info.fusionww.com/blog/agentic-ai-preparing-for-the-hybrid-infrastructure-surge" rel="noopener"><img src="https://5664301.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/5664301/13-1.png" width="2400" height="800" loading="lazy" alt="13-1" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; width: 2400px;"></a>
­

The first wave of AI adoption was defined by what systems could generate: text, images, code, and predictions delivered one output at a time. These models were powerful, but fundamentally reactive. They waited for an instruction, produced a result, and stopped.

Why Passive Components Are Emerging as a 2026 Supply Risk

Why passive components are emerging as a 2026 supply risk. Learn how server and GPU demand, flat capacity, and rising costs are reshaping passive availability.

As 2025 comes to a close, most 2026 planning conversations still center on processors, memory, and storage. But recent market signals suggest another category deserves earlier attention: <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1006/passive-components" rel="noopener" target="_blank">passive components.</a>

Across multiple regions and programs, passive supply is becoming a growing concern heading into 2026, as manufacturers redirect capacity toward high-volume system builds and availability tightens earlier in the planning cycle than many teams expect. This shift is not the result of a single disruption, but rather a familiar combination of demand concentration, constrained capacity, and rising input costs.
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;">What Can the 2018–2019 Passive Shortage Tell Us About 2026?</h2>
The current passive market is not without precedent. The last major disruption occurred in 2018 and 2019, when<a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1172/ceramic-capacitors" rel="noopener" target="_blank"> multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs)</a> became one of the most constrained component categories in the supply chain.
That shortage was driven by two forces acting at the same time.
First, demand surged across multiple fast-growing end markets. Smartphones began requiring well over 1,000 MLCCs per device, while electric vehicles and advanced automotive electronics drove thousands more per platform. At the same time, the expansion of connected devices and early IoT adoption added further pressure to already tightening supply.
Second, supply was structurally constrained. Between 2016 and 2019, major manufacturers such as Murata, TDK, and Taiyo Yuden reduced or exited production of legacy and general-purpose MLCC lines in favor of higher-margin, high-capacitance products designed for premium automotive and advanced handset applications. Capacity expansion was limited, in part because adding MLCC production lines requires complex layering processes and long qualification cycles, often taking eight to twelve months or longer. Investment flowed toward the most profitable segments rather than commodity components.
The result was a prolonged imbalance where demand accelerated faster than supply could realistically respond.
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;">Why Does This Matter Heading Into 2026?</h2>
Today’s passive market is not experiencing the same broad-based shortage conditions seen in 2018 or during the 2021 through 2023 supply cycle. However, the underlying pattern is beginning to re-emerge.
Similar to 2018, demand for passives is increasing sharply as 2026 server and GPU platforms require a higher concentration of advanced passive components. This growth is being driven by high-density compute platforms, data center infrastructure, and next-generation server architectures that demand greater power regulation, stability, and signal integrity. At the same time, material costs have risen, and capacity has remained relatively flat or has been reduced following the oversupply conditions of 2024, when manufacturers focused on cost controls rather than expansion. The result is a tighter starting point for 2026, with less buffer in the system and fewer opportunities to absorb demand shifts once capacity is spoken for.
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-weight: bold;">Why Is Demand for Passives Rising So Quickly?</h2>
One of the most important forces shaping passive availability in 2026 is not how many systems are being built, but how many more passive components each system now requires.
Modern server, networking, and high-density compute platforms consume substantially more capacitors and connectors to support power delivery, voltage regulation, and signal integrity. As architectures become more power-dense, passive content per system continues to rise, even if overall unit volumes remain relatively stable.
This dynamic can be easy to miss. While attention is often focused on processors and memory, the passive footprint of each system has grown quietly but meaningfully.
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;">Why Aren’t Manufacturers Expanding Passive Capacity Faster?</h2>
Passive components are built and scaled very differently than advanced processors and memory, and that difference directly affects how capacity is added.
Leading-edge semiconductors such as<a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1205/cpus" rel="noopener" target="_blank"> CPUs, </a><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1206/gpus" rel="noopener" target="_blank">GPUs, </a>and<a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1208/memory-modules" rel="noopener" target="_blank"> high-performance memory</a> are produced in extremely high volumes around a relatively small number of standardized designs. That concentration supports large, fast investments in new capacity because demand is deep, predictable, and consolidated.
Passive components, by contrast, are produced across thousands of variations that differ by size, voltage, material, tolerance, and qualification requirements. Even when overall demand increases, that demand is spread across many individual part numbers rather than concentrated into a small number of high-volume SKUs. Expanding capacity for one specification does not automatically relieve constraints elsewhere.
As a result, capacity expansion tends to be incremental and selective. Suppliers prioritize committed, long-term programs where volumes are locked in early and production can be planned efficiently, leaving less flexibility for spot demand or late-stage adjustments.
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;">How Are Material Costs Affecting Passive Pricing?</h2>
Heading into 2026, supply risk is increasingly being shaped by economics as much as availability.
Throughout 2025, manufacturers have faced sustained increases in copper and silver, two materials that sit at the core of many passive components. Copper is widely used in connector contacts, lead frames, and internal capacitor structures, while silver is commonly used in electrode pastes and conductive layers within ceramic and tantalum capacitors. As those input costs rise, they directly increase the cost to produce finished components.
At the same time, upstream materials used in <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1039/circular-connectors?Connector+Type=Connector%2C+PCB%2C+Signal" rel="noopener" target="_blank">printed circuit boards (PCBs) </a>and related assemblies, including copper foil and laminate materials, have also seen cost inflation. Together, these pressures are influencing both pricing strategies and supplier prioritization decisions.
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;">Which Passive Categories Are Most at Risk in Early 2026?</h2>
While exposure varies by specification and use case, several passive categories are consistently flagged as higher risk heading into Q1 and Q2 2026:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1176/tantalum-capacitors" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Tantalum capacitors,</a> where lead times have extended significantly and pricing pressure continues to build</li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1175/polymer-capacitors" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Polymer capacitors,</a> which are seeing early shortages and announced price increases</li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1169/aluminum-electrolytic-capacitors" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Aluminum electrolytic capacitors,</a> where lead times have stretched beyond historical norms</li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1172/ceramic-capacitors" rel="noopener" target="_blank">High-capacitance MLCCs</a>, particularly those used in server and data center platforms</li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1001/connectors" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Connectors</a>, where rising copper and gold costs are driving price increases</li>
</ul>
Risk is not uniform across all parts, but availability is becoming increasingly dependent on specification, qualification, and timing.
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;">What Does This Mean for Procurement Teams Entering 2026?</h2>
The risk around passives heading into 2026 is not a sudden shortage, but a quieter problem: limited visibility into when capacity disappears and how quickly lead times can stretch.
Teams that wait until late in the planning cycle may find fewer options available, less flexibility on alternates, and pricing assumptions that no longer hold. Earlier visibility into allocation trends, material cost pressures, and open-market availability is becoming more important as passives regain strategic relevance.
This is where market intelligence and flexible sourcing can help bridge gaps and reduce surprises. Fusion Worldwide supports procurement teams by combining real-time insight into passive market conditions with access to available inventory across key categories, helping customers respond faster as conditions evolve.
<a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1006/passive-components" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Source passive components through Fusion Worldwide’s online platform</a> and stay informed with <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/the-greensheet-december-2025" rel="noopener" target="_blank">The Greensheet</a> for ongoing insight into passive and broader supply chain trends.

As 2025 comes to a close, most 2026 planning conversations still center on processors, memory, and storage. But recent market signals suggest another category deserves earlier attention: <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1006/passive-components" rel="noopener" target="_blank">passive components.</a>

The Greensheet monthly market intelligence report cover, December 2025.

The Greensheet: December 2025

The December Greensheet provides market intelligence on electronic components, analyzing AI-driven demand, memory and storage constraints, pricing trends, lead times, and global supply chain shifts.

<a id="key-themes" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2>Key Themes</h2>
<ul>
<li>Memory Shortage Horizon Extends to 2027: Leading OEMs and enterprise customers now project the DRAM/NAND supply crunch will persist well into 2028, not 2026 as previously expected. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Kioxia have reportedly already sold out all 2026 NAND capacity and are negotiating 2027 allocations with hyperscalers. </li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/nexperia-supply-chain-update-2025-global-market-impact-and-buyer-strategy" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Nexperia Partially Resumes but Trouble Far from Over:</a><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/nexperia-supply-chain-update-2025-global-market-impact-and-buyer-strategy" rel="noopener" target="_blank"> </a>While select Nexperia distributors in Xiamen and Dongguan have resumed quoting and shipping (domestically and to Hong Kong), global OEMs are permanently exiting the brand. Automotive Tier 1s now demand full traceability and are qualifying On Semi, Diodes, and Infineon as drop-in replacements at scale. </li>
<li>Broadcom Faces Looming Supply Shock from TSMC Prioritization Shift: TSMC is reportedly cutting 50% of its Broadcom wafer allocation to redirect capacity toward memory and AI chips. Broadcom distributors warn of significant price hikes and extended lead times across networking and storage ICs starting Q1 2026. </li>
</ul>
<a id="product-updates" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2 style="text-align: center;">Product Updates</h2>
<a id="integrated-circuits" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1004/integrated-circuits-ics" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Integrated Circuits</a></h2>
Foundry Shifts Constrain Legacy IC Supply
<ul>
<li>TSMC is phasing out older, smaller 6-inch wafers and consolidating 8-inch wafer production to improve efficiency and focus resources on advanced 12-inch processes (like 3nm and 5nm) and advanced packaging, which are used by Broadcom, Nvidia, and Apple. </li>
<li>Lead times for Marvell components, particularly the <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1140/ethernet-interface-ics?manufacturers=222" rel="noopener" target="_blank">88E-xxx series</a>, have been significantly extended beyond the standard 26 weeks. Most existing backlog orders are now on hold, awaiting updated delivery. This delay stems from TSMC’s strategic reallocation of wafer capacity toward AI-related memory production, resulting in a ~50% reduction in wafer allocation for Marvell. </li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1200/flash?manufacturers=274" rel="noopener" target="_blank">GigaDevice’s flash memory</a> is in short supply, with lead times stretching past 2026. </li>
<li>The Xilinx XC7 series has recently been extended from 14 to 23 weeks due to raw material supply and costs. </li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<a id="cpus" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;"><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1205/cpus" rel="noopener" target="_blank">CPUs&nbsp;</a></h2>
Demand Clusters Around Proven Architectures
<ul>
<li>The market is overwhelmingly favoring Intel’s 12th, 13th, and 14th Gen CPUs (Alder Lake and Raptor Lake) over newer architectures. Adoption of Meteor Lake, Lunar Lake, and Arrow Lake remains limited due to significant performance and design trade-offs. As a result, demand for older-generation Intel CPUs remains intense, exacerbating supply shortages and driving spot-market premiums. </li>
<li>Intel is no longer providing full allocation for EOL Rocket Lake CPUs, accelerating end-of-life logistics for legacy server platforms. &nbsp;</li>
<li>AMD server CPU continues facing a supply issue on the <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1220/server-cpus?Core+Family=Genoa" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Genoa</a> and <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1220/server-cpus?Core+Family=Turin" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Turin</a> series. Especially for <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/product/2899327/100-000000790" rel="noopener" target="_blank">9554</a>, <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/product/4269311/100-000000921" rel="noopener" target="_blank">9654</a>, <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/product/2899205/100-000000800" rel="noopener" target="_blank">9334</a>. Supply is limited with booking LT around 8-12 weeks. </li>
<li>For non-server segments, <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1217/desktop-cpus?manufacturers=8" rel="noopener" target="_blank">AMD desktop CPU </a>lead times have stabilized at 3–4 weeks, offering a rare bright spot in an otherwise constrained market. &nbsp;</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<a id="gpus" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;"><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1206/gpus" rel="noopener" target="_blank">GPUs</a></h2>
Workstation GPU Availability Pushes Into 2026
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1224/professional-cards?manufacturers=225&amp;Series=RTX+PRO+2000%3A%3BRTX+PRO+4000" rel="noopener" target="_blank">NVIDIA RTX 2000 and 4000</a> Ada workstation GPUs have had allocation pushed from November 2025 to January 2026, with lead times now exceeding 8 weeks. &nbsp;</li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/product/4273913/900-1G144-2530-000" rel="noopener" target="_blank">NVIDIA RTX 5090</a> lead time stretches to February 2026 due to massive demand for GPUs for AI development and potential shortages with GDDR Memory.</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<a id="memory" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;"><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1199/memory" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Memory</a></h2>
Consumer Memory Exits Reshape Supply
<ul>
<li>Micron has officially announced it will discontinue its consumer-focused Crucial memory and SSD product lines. Shipments will cease by the end of Q2 FY2026, after which the business line will be formally shut down. </li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<a id="rdimm" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2 style="font-size: 30px;"><a href="http://fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1208/memory-modules" rel="noopener" target="_blank">RDIMM</a></h2>
Hyperscaler pull continues to crowd out channels
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1208/memory-modules?Memory+Technology=DDR4" rel="noopener" target="_blank">DDR4 RDIMMs </a>and <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1208/memory-modules?Memory+Technology=DDR5" rel="noopener" target="_blank">DDR5 RDIMMs</a> are both heavily constrained, and market pricing is moving up each week. More than 75% of memory production is now dedicated to hyperscalers and AI/cloud companies, leaving less than 25% available for traditional distribution channels.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<a id="ssd" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;"><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1236/solid-state-drives" rel="noopener" target="_blank">SSD</a></h2>
Pricing Resets as NAND Tightens
<ul>
<li>Samsung and Solidigm Enterprise and Consumer SSD shortage is getting worse in Q1 2026. With reports of at least a 20% price increase for enterprise SSDs. </li>
<li>Most storage specialists confirm a sweeping price adjustment is coming in January, with increases ranging from 20% to 50% depending on the series. With many customers reporting receiving about 1/3 allocation. </li>
<li>Samsung is discontinuing all 250GB and 500GB SSD models moving forward. The bare minimum will now be a <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1245/server-solid-state-drives?manufacturers=141&amp;Capacity=1.6TB%3A%3B1.9TB%3A%3B1.92TB%3A%3B2TB%3A%3B3.2TB%3A%3B3.8TB%3A%3B3.84TB%3A%3B4TB%3A%3B6.4TB%3A%3B7.6TB%3A%3B7.68TB%3A%3B12.8TB%3A%3B15.3TB%3A%3B15.36TB%3A%3B30.7TB%3A%3B30.72TB" rel="noopener" target="_blank">1TB Capacity. </a></li>
<li>Transcend has increased the SSD price by 20-25% and postponed its shipments to customers due to a lack of NAND.  </li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<a id="hdd" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;"><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1235/hard-disk-drives" rel="noopener" target="_blank">HDD</a></h2>
High-capacity models remain structurally constrained
<ul>
<li>Lead times now exceed 52 weeks across all vendors, including Seagate, Western Digital, and even Toshiba, with the highest demand for models featuring <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1235/hard-disk-drives?Storage+Capacity=20TB&amp;manufacturers=231%2C182%2C234" rel="noopener" target="_blank">20TB</a> and <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1235/hard-disk-drives?manufacturers=231%2C182%2C234&amp;Storage+Capacity=24TB" rel="noopener" target="_blank">24TB</a> capacities. </li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<a id="passives" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;"><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1006/passive-components" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Passives</a></h2>
Extended lead times and price increases persist
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/shop/catalog/1176/tantalum-capacitors?manufacturers=311" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Kemet tantalum capacitor</a> lead times have stretched from 32 to 42 weeks. &nbsp;</li>
<li>Panasonic and Kemet have both increased prices and are expecting to increase pricing even more in 2026 </li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<a id="supply-chain-trends" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2 style="text-align: center;">Supply Chain Trends&nbsp;</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20251210PD218.html">TSMC expands CoWoS capacity with Nvidia:</a> Semiconductor equipment suppliers reveal that TSMC and non-TSMC players, including ASE, Amkor, and UMC, are accelerating the expansion of advanced packaging Chip on Wafer on Substrate (CoWoS) capacity. </li>
<li><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4529844-nvidias-h200-chips-require-circuitous-route-before-landing-in-china-report" rel="noopener" target="_blank" id="__hsNewLink">NVIDIA's H200 chips require a circuitous route before landing in China</a><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4529844-nvidias-h200-chips-require-circuitous-route-before-landing-in-china-report" rel="noopener" target="_blank" id="__hsNewLink">:</a> The Trump administration has authorized exports of NVIDIA's H200 artificial intelligence processors to China. </li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<a id="manufacturer-news-and-updates" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2 style="text-align: center;">Manufacturer News and Updates&nbsp;</h2>
<ul>
<li>Wingtech, the Chinese parent company of Netherlands-based chipmaker Nexperia, said it has invited the court-appointed custodians of the Dutch firm for talks on control of the company, a possible first step toward easing relations. [Source: <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/wingtech-nexperia-netherlands-china-chips-5572606">CNA</a>] </li>
<li>SK Hynix is reaping the largest benefits from the H200 export approval. It is reportedly the primary supplier of the fifth-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM3E) used in the H200, meaning its supply volume will inevitably rise, making it the biggest beneficiary. [Source: <a href="https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/12/10/news-nvidia-h200-export-to-china-approved-unlocking-gains-for-taiwan-oems-osats-and-server-suppliers/">Trendforce</a>] </li>
</ul>
<h2>&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 data-start="254" data-end="482"><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/agentic-ai-preparing-for-the-hybrid-infrastructure-surge" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Explore our latest Market Intelligence on Agentic AI</a></h2>
A focused look at how Agentic AI workloads are reshaping demand for memory, GPUs, advanced packaging, and infrastructure—and what sourcing teams should be watching next. <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/agentic-ai-preparing-for-the-hybrid-infrastructure-surge" rel="noopener" target="_blank" id="__hsNewLink">Read now.</a>
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

<a id="key-themes" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2>Key Themes</h2>
<ul>
<li>Memory Shortage Horizon Extends to 2027: Leading OEMs and enterprise customers now project the DRAM/NAND supply crunch will persist well into 2028, not 2026 as previously expected. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Kioxia have reportedly already sold out all 2026 NAND capacity and are negotiating 2027 allocations with hyperscalers. </li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/nexperia-supply-chain-update-2025-global-market-impact-and-buyer-strategy" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Nexperia Partially Resumes but Trouble Far from Over:</a><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/nexperia-supply-chain-update-2025-global-market-impact-and-buyer-strategy" rel="noopener" target="_blank"> </a>While select Nexperia distributors in Xiamen and Dongguan have resumed quoting and shipping (domestically and to Hong Kong), global OEMs are permanently exiting the brand. Automotive Tier 1s now demand full traceability and are qualifying On Semi, Diodes, and Infineon as drop-in replacements at scale. </li>
<li>Broadcom Faces Looming Supply Shock from TSMC Prioritization Shift: TSMC is reportedly cutting 50% of its Broadcom wafer allocation to redirect capacity toward memory and AI chips. Broadcom distributors warn of significant price hikes and extended lead times across networking and storage ICs starting Q1 2026. </li>
</ul>

Hero graphic for Fusion Worldwide’s intelligence report ‘Agentic AI: Preparing for the Hybrid Infrastructure Surge,’ showing a human hand and robotic hand reaching toward each other to symbolize the rise of AI-driven hybrid infrastructure.

Agentic AI: Preparing for the Hybrid Infrastructure Surge

This report explains how those changes are shifting demand for key components—HBM, GPUs/accelerators, DDR5, advanced substrates, high-speed optics, and power systems. It also outlines supply risks, regional differences, and what buyers should prioritize as AI infrastructure spending grows through 2030. 

Agentic AI is accelerating a fundamental shift in how enterprises design and operate their hardware environments. As organizations move autonomous AI agents from controlled pilots into real production workflows, they are encountering new performance requirements that ripple across memory, compute, interconnect, and power systems. These changes are beginning to reshape demand patterns, and early indicators suggest the next cycle of pressure may arrive sooner than anticipated.

To better understand how this transition will affect the electronic component supply chain, Fusion Worldwide has published a new Intelligence&nbsp;Report focused on Agentic AI’s emerging impact. The report analyzes where demand is building first, which components are entering multi-year investment cycles, and how regional and structural constraints may influence availability through the rest of the decade.
<h2 data-start="1268" data-end="1303">Key Insights From the Report</h2>
<h3 data-start="1305" data-end="1354">A New Layer of Infrastructure Is Emerging</h3>
As enterprises scale autonomous agents, they are building hybrid stacks that combine edge devices, on-prem systems, and cloud resources. This distributed architecture is driving new requirements for GPUs and accelerators, DDR5, HBM, advanced substrates, and high-speed optics.
<h3 style="font-size: 20px;" data-start="1633" data-end="1695">Pressure Is Building in Bandwidth-Intensive Components</h3>
HBM and GPU supply are showing early signs of strain driven by hyperscaler buildouts and accelerating enterprise adoption. DDR5 is gaining traction as baseline server performance needs rise, and substrate capacity remains a structural constraint across the industry.
<h3 data-start="1964" data-end="2017">AI Agents Intensify Power and Thermal Demands</h3>
The shift toward nonstop inference increases the load on power management ICs, voltage regulation modules, and thermal solutions. These categories—traditionally stable—are experiencing renewed demand as systems grow denser and more distributed.
<h3 data-start="2264" data-end="2318">Regional Dynamics Are Influencing Availability</h3>
Manufacturing concentration, export controls, and uneven capacity expansions are creating regional variations in component availability. Procurement teams will need to account for location-based risk as they plan long-term sourcing strategies.
&nbsp;
<h2 data-start="2569" data-end="2589">Looking Ahead</h2>
Agentic AI is reshaping the hardware landscape faster than many expected. As enterprises scale from pilot deployments to production-level autonomy, component demand will continue to shift toward bandwidth-heavy memory, accelerators, advanced packaging, and power systems.
This report provides the clarity needed to anticipate those changes, helping buyers understand where pressure builds first and how to prepare for the next wave of AI-driven infrastructure growth.
&nbsp;
<a href="https://5664301.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/5664301/Insights/Intelligence%20Report/Fusion%20-%20Agentic%20AI%20Intelligence%20Report.pdf" rel="noopener" target="_blank" data-hs-domain-rewrite="true"><img src="https://5664301.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/5664301/12-2.png" width="993" height="357" loading="lazy" alt="Get the report now" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; width: 993px;"></a>
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

Agentic AI is accelerating a fundamental shift in how enterprises design and operate their hardware environments. As organizations move autonomous AI agents from controlled pilots into real production workflows, they are encountering new performance requirements that ripple across memory, compute, interconnect, and power systems. These changes are beginning to reshape demand patterns, and early indicators suggest the next cycle of pressure may arrive sooner than anticipated.

An array of semiconductor wafers with integrated components, used as a visual backdrop for the article title ‘Inside the AI Bottleneck: CoWoS, HBM, and 2–3nm Capacity Constraints Through 2027.’

Inside the AI Bottleneck: CoWoS, HBM, and 2–3nm Capacity Constraints Through 2027 

Discover why CoWoS packaging, HBM supply, and 3nm wafer capacity are falling short of AI demand through 2027, and what this means for procurement leaders.

Why every major supplier says demand will outstrip capacity — no matter how much they spend.&nbsp;

The Greensheet: November 2025

The latest Greensheet breaks down critical component shortages and price moves impacting global procurement: Nexperia substitution chaos, Samsung’s DDR5 price surge, Intel’s 10nm portfolio wind-down, enterprise SSD allocation to Big 7 cloud buyers, tightening RDIMM and AI-server components, and shifting GPU availability. Essential insights for sourcing leaders navigating 2025’s volatile semiconductor market.

<a id="key-themes" data-hs-anchor="true"></a>
<h2>Key Themes</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/nexperia-supply-chain-update-2025-global-market-impact-and-buyer-strategy" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Nexperia Crisis Enters New Phase, Triggering Industry-Wide Substitution</a><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/nexperia-supply-chain-update-2025-global-market-impact-and-buyer-strategy" rel="noopener" target="_blank" style="font-weight: normal;">:</a> While limited shipments from Nexperia China have resumed under yuan-based transactions, OEMs are no longer accepting parts produced after October 13, 2025 due to concerns over authenticity. This has ignited a frantic, global search for alternatives, with some distributors now barred from supporting brokered deals.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/ai-sets-the-price-why-dram-shortages-are-rewriting-memory-market-economics" rel="noopener" target="_blank">The Great Memory Shortage of 2025–26 Deepens</a><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/ai-sets-the-price-why-dram-shortages-are-rewriting-memory-market-economics" rel="noopener" target="_blank" style="font-weight: normal;">:</a> Samsung has reportedly hiked contract prices for DDR5 modules by up to 60%, with 32GB pricing surging. Customers are being forced into weekly, non-negotiable pricing and NCNR terms to secure minimal supply.</li>
<li>Intel’s 10nm Crisis Becomes Structural: Intel is formally proposing double-digit price hikes on its entire 10nm portfolio (12th–14th Gen desktop, mobile, and server CPUs) to customers, citing unsustainable production economics. This confirms the shortage is no longer a temporary bottleneck but a strategic wind-down, as Intel prioritizes its 18A node for next-gen AI PCs. Small-core CPUs (N-series) and Raptor Lake Refresh remain in “super-short” supply.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/enterprise-ssd-supply-what-buyers-need-to-know" rel="noopener" target="_blank">SSD Market Squeezed by Dual Demand Shock:</a><a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/enterprise-ssd-supply-what-buyers-need-to-know" rel="noopener" target="_blank"> </a>Enterprise SSDs from Solidigm and Samsung are now effectively allocated only to “Big 7” cloud customers (Tesla, Microsoft, OpenAI, etc.), leaving minimal support for distribution channels. This, combined with soaring DRAM/NAND costs, has led PNY to suspend all Black Friday storage deals and manufacturers to signal 20–30% Q4 price hikes across the board.</li>
</ul>

Is AI Demand a Bubble?: Inside the Foundry Split Between Analog Excess and Memory Constraints

AI demand isn’t a bubble. Learn how foundry capacity splits and structural memory constraints are reshaping semiconductor supply and procurement strategy.

&nbsp;
Industry analyst Claus Aasholm on why traditional supply-demand logic no longer explains what buyers are experiencing.
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The global semiconductor market is moving into a phase where traditional supply-demand logic no longer explains what buyers are experiencing on the ground. According to <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/clausaasholm/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Claus Aasholm</a>, Founder of Semiconductor Business Intelligence and one of the industry's most followed independent analysts, the market hasn't broken—it has entered a fundamentally different equilibrium.&nbsp;&nbsp;
Aasholm's work is used by semiconductor suppliers, OEMs, and institutional investors to understand how pricing power shifts, how capital is allocated across memory and foundry nodes, and where structural supply constraints will emerge before they become visible in channel data.&nbsp;
In a recent conversation with <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-czuczwa-80b77bb8/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Andrew Czuczwa</a>, Market Research Manager at Fusion Worldwide, Aasholm outlined two dynamics reshaping the semiconductor landscape: the growing mismatch between analog and digital foundry capacity, and the reality that AI demand is driving a durable infrastructure build-out rather than a speculative spike.&nbsp;
Czuczwa brings buyer-side visibility from supporting thousands of active sourcing teams navigating these shifts in real time. When the analyst perspective and ground-level procurement behavior align, the signal becomes clear.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<h2 style="font-size: 24px;" aria-level="2">The Foundry Capacity Paradox: Plenty of Supply Where It's Not Needed&nbsp;</h2>
Aasholm describes a widening split between analog/mature nodes and memory/high-performance compute nodes—a divergence that undermines any narrative about "the semiconductor industry" expanding or contracting as a unified whole.&nbsp;
While analog and mixed-signal manufacturers expanded aggressively earlier in the decade, utilization collapsed during the downturn and has not recovered to historical norms.&nbsp;
<blockquote>
"Some analog companies more than doubled their capacity earlier this decade. But utilization dropped hard during the downturn. Renesas was down near 33% and has only climbed back to around 50%. That's still very low."&nbsp; — Claus Aasholm, Founder, Semiconductor Business Intelligence&nbsp;
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This excess capacity stands in stark contrast to memory production, where demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) continues to escalate faster than capacity can adjust.&nbsp;
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<blockquote>
"Inside DRAM, there's only one priority today, and that's HBM. Each new generation requires more wafer capacity to make the same amount of bits. And there's only one place to take that capacity from — DDR5 and DDR4."&nbsp; — Claus Aasholm, Founder, Semiconductor Business Intelligence&nbsp;
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</blockquote>
The paradox is structural: we have spare capacity in the wrong part of the industry.&nbsp;
This means buyers cannot rely on broad "capacity expanding" narratives to inform sourcing decisions. The relevant question has become: capacity for what products, on which process nodes, controlled by which manufacturers?&nbsp;
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px;" aria-level="2">The AI Shift: A Structural Build-Out, Not a Bubble&nbsp;</h2>
Much of the public debate around AI investment focuses on valuation, hype cycles, and speculative demand. Aasholm's assessment is direct: this is not a repeat of the dot-com era.&nbsp;
<blockquote>
"People compare this to the dot-com bubble, but back then there were no revenues. This time, the demand is real, the production is real, and the profits are real. We're in the early innings."&nbsp; — Claus Aasholm, Founder, Semiconductor Business Intelligence&nbsp;
</blockquote>
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According to Aasholm, this cycle is grounded in deployed systems, measurable workloads, and revenue-generating infrastructure—not speculative positioning ahead of uncertain demand.&nbsp;
The consequence is that memory demand no longer responds to price pressure the way it once did. In traditional DRAM cycles, rising prices eventually cooled PC and handset upgrades as buyers deferred purchases. Today, <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/resources/the-cost-of-ai-how-hyperscaler-spending-is-impacting-semiconductor-supply" rel="noopener" target="_blank">memory demand is set by hyperscaler infrastructure roadmaps</a>, not consumer elasticity.&nbsp;
This fundamentally shifts the basis of procurement from price prediction to strategic positioning.&nbsp;
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px;" aria-level="2">What This Means for Supply Chain Strategy&nbsp;</h2>
Czuczwa's perspective from the open market distribution channel reinforces the structural nature of these shifts. Operating across multiple geographies and end markets, Fusion Worldwide functions as an early-warning system for supply-side changes—occupying the space between manufacturer allocation decisions and buyer procurement needs.&nbsp;
This positioning provides visibility into how sourcing behavior shifts before those changes show up in published market data. When qualification timelines accelerate, when multi-sourcing strategies move from contingency plans to operational requirements, or when design teams begin factoring component availability into architecture decisions earlier in development cycles, these signals emerge first in the distribution channel.&nbsp;
The implications for OEMs, contract manufacturers, and sourcing teams are becoming operational realities:&nbsp;
Price elasticity has weakened. Waiting for historical price "resets" may mean missing allocation entirely. The assumption that time always favors the buyer no longer holds in segments where supply is structurally constrained.&nbsp;
Memory strategy now follows compute strategy. Procurement must align with AI system rollout timelines, not market cycles. Component planning increasingly mirrors infrastructure deployment schedules rather than responding to spot pricing.&nbsp;
Mature-node availability is not a fallback for constrained memory supply. The bottleneck is architectural, not operational. Excess analog capacity does not solve tightness in advanced memory nodes, they serve different functions in different systems.&nbsp;
Vendor roadmaps now determine competitive advantage in supply assurance. Organizations that understand manufacturer priorities and product mix shifts can position themselves ahead of allocation decisions rather than reacting to them.&nbsp;
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px;" aria-level="2">A Market That Has Entered a New Equilibrium&nbsp;</h2>
The market is not misbehaving. According to Aasholm, it has simply entered a new equilibrium, one where AI infrastructure demand anchors the memory market differently than PC and smartphone upgrades once did, and where capacity abundance in mature nodes coexists with persistent tightness in advanced memory.&nbsp;
For procurement teams and supply chain strategists, the challenge is recognizing when the rules governing market behavior have changed, and adjusting sourcing approach accordingly before those changes become constraints.&nbsp;
The organizations adapting their procurement strategy now, based on structural shifts rather than historical cycle patterns, are positioning themselves for sustained component access in a market that no longer corrects the way it used to.&nbsp;
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<h2 style="font-size: 24px;">Access Ongoing Market Intelligence&nbsp;</h2>
Understanding these shifts requires ongoing visibility into how supply-side decisions translate into component availability. Fusion Worldwide's monthly Greensheet provides procurement teams with analysis across memory, analog, and digital markets—the kind of intelligence that helps sourcing teams recognize structural changes before they become allocation constraints.
<a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/the-greensheet-october-2025" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Create a free account to access monthly Greensheet insights.</a>
For a deeper technical perspective, revisit our <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/inside-the-memory-squeeze-a-conversation-with-claus-aasholm-founder-lead-analyst-of-semiconductor-business-intelligence-and-andrew-czuczwa-fusion-worldwides-1762439273140" rel="noopener" target="_blank">full interview transcript</a> with Claus Aasholm and Andrew Czuczwa, explore Claus’s ongoing research on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/clausaasholm/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a> and <a href="https://clausaasholm.substack.com/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Semiconductor Business Intelligence</a>, and see how these insights connect to the dynamics outlined in our first article with Claus, <a href="https://www.fusionww.com/insights/blog/ai-sets-the-price-why-dram-shortages-are-rewriting-memory-market-economics" rel="noopener" target="_blank">AI Sets the Price:&nbsp;Why DRAM Shortages Are Rewriting Memory Market Economics.</a>
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<h2>FAQ</h2>
 Why is analog capacity underutilized while memory supply is still tight? Because earlier-decade capital expansion happened in analog and mixed-signal nodes, not in advanced memory. AI workloads are pulling wafer capacity toward HBM, leaving DDR4/DDR5 structurally constrained even as analog sits half-utilized.
What makes today’s AI-driven demand different from past semiconductor cycles? Traditional DRAM cycles cooled when prices rose and consumers delayed upgrades. Today’s demand is driven by hyperscaler infrastructure roadmaps, which do not slow down when prices increase. This removes the “self-correcting” mechanism buyers relied on in the past.
Is AI demand actually a bubble? Claus Aasholm’s view is no. The demand is backed by deployed systems, real workloads, and measurable revenue — not speculative hype. The imbalance stems from where capacity exists and where it does not.
How should procurement teams adapt to this new equilibrium? Waiting for historical price resets is risky. Buyers need earlier alignment with manufacturer roadmaps, parallel sourcing strategies, and closer monitoring of how wafer capacity is being redistributed between memory and compute.

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