The Greensheet: October 2025

Key Themes 

• Nexperia Transition Disrupts Automotive Supply: Dutch authorities have taken control of Nexperia, prompting export restrictions that are disrupting the automotive chip supply across Europe. Manufacturers are securing alternative sources as distributors pause quoting on affected parts. 
• Intel 10nm Shortages Broaden Across Product Lines: Intel’s 10nm production constraints have deepened, delaying multiple CPU and server SKUs into Q1 2026. Capacity shifts and workforce reductions are contributing factors, and customers are now being asked for six-month demand forecasts.

Product Updates 

Integrated Circuits

Supply Constraints and Market Shifts 

• Nexperia was issued an export control notice prohibiting the shipment of specific finished components and sub-assemblies manufactured in China (COO CN). Citing concerns over the potential transfer of sensitive technology to its Chinese parent company, Wingtech. Numerous distributors have frozen all quoting activity on Nexperia MPNs, exacerbating supply uncertainty across Europe and the Americas. 
• NXP is reportedly increasing prices on RF products by an average of 300%, impacting backlog and forcing customers to re-quote. 
• Lead times for Skyworks’ SMPxx series diodes have extended from 8 to 16 weeks due to a reduction in production and a raw material shortage. Compounding the issue, pricing for these parts has surged tenfold, effectively pricing out many buyers. 
• Demand for Texas Instruments (TI) parts is accelerating as customers pivot from Analog Devices (ADI), which continues to face chronic shortages due to backend capacity limitations and price hikes extending into 2026. Compounding the situation, Arrow’s Asia operations are in disarray after its Shanghai and Hong Kong entities were added to the U.S. export restriction list. 

CPUs

Pricing Trends and Supply Constraints 

• Intel’s 10nm production remains critically constrained, with ETAs for many SKUs now pushed to Q1 2026. Small-core CPUs (N97, N305, N355) are in super-short supply. Intel is asking customers for 6-month demand forecasts. 
• Supply is tight through Q1-Q2 2026 for Intel Server CPU on the 4th Gen Sapphire Rapids and 5th Gen Emerald Rapids. 
• Intel has issued PCNs for the EOL of several legacy Ethernet products, with the last shipments scheduled for June 2026. 
• Prices for AMD Genoa CPUs are continuing on an uptrend, reflecting the scarcity. While specific Q4 pricing isn't detailed, the market-wide pressure on server CPUs suggests continued upward pressure. The shortage is occurring against a backdrop of strong EU/US demand for high-core-count processors. 
• Intel is reportedly raising prices on the ever-popular Raptor Lake CPUs to get over a 10% price hike as AI PC demand remains weak. Intel is actively reducing supply for older generations like Raptor Lake to force this transition. This creates a supply-demand imbalance, driving up prices for these legacy parts despite their popularity. 

GPUs

Shifting Availability and Lifecycle Changes 

• Last Time Buy (LTB) date for the RTX Ada series might be extended by two months (January to March 2026). Shipments are now expected to continue through approximately September 2026. 
• Nvidia GeForce RTX 5090 supply is tightening as GDDR7 memory constraints continue to limit production. As a result, pricing is expected to rise by at least 9%, with lead times reportedly pushed out to January 2026, signaling a sustained supply-demand imbalance for this high-demand consumer GPU. 

Networking Cards

Persistent Shortages 

• Nvidia’s CX8 is now being bundled and shipped together with the new GB-series GPUs and is generally not available for separate purchase. 
• MCCX-7 shipments are reportedly delayed again to the end of November following the earlier shortage. However, supply uncertainties remain across certain models, even as demand for AI applications continues to rise. 

DRAM Memory

Production Restart and Capacity Challenges 

• Samsung has shifted pricing negotiations from quarterly to monthly, reflecting extreme market volatility. Contract prices have jumped significantly in the last two months. 
• Micron’s 2GB GDDR7 supply is expected to remain tight in Q4, as the market shifts toward 3GB and 4GB GDDR7 becoming the new mainstream. Manufacturers are increasingly directing demand toward these higher-density options. 
• LPDDR5X supply is growing tighter as Micron shifts capacity to HBM. The situation will worsen with the ramp of LPCAMM2 modules, each requiring four LPDDR5X chips. Once LPCAMM2 enters full production, standard LPDDR5X customers will likely see further delays. Meanwhile, LPDDR6 is expected to launch commercially by the end of 2025.

RDIMM

Long-Term Support with Tight Allocation Ahead 

• 96GB & 128GB high-density modules for AI servers (B200/B300) are the most constrained. Samsung’s 96GB (Q-die) is in slightly better supply, but 128GB remains very tight due to shared die production.  
• While more available than DDR4, DDR5 is now under severe allocation pressure. Samsung and Hynix are prioritizing 96GB and 128GB modules for AI servers, leading to 20-week lead times and confirmed monthly price increases (~4%). Samsung has reportedly halted DDR5 RDIMM allocation to the open market due to on-die ECC validation issues. 

SSD

Capacity Shortages and Manufacturer Price Moves 

• Solidigm Enterprise SSDs have an average lead time of 6-8 weeks, with some high-demand SKUs extending to over 10 weeks due to QLC raised in the U.S region and board-level material shortages. Solidigm official pricing will increase 10-15%, and supply will be much lower than before, as they are seeing increasing demand overall. 
• SK Hynix is reportedly planning to double DRAM wafer capacity to 600K per month by 2H 2026 to match Samsung’s scale, while scaling back NAND investments amid weak demand. DRAM pricing is already rising, with some reports indicating increases of around 15% this month. NAND capex has trailed DRAM in recent years, raising concerns about potential NAND shortages ahead. 
  

HDD

Tight Supply for High-Capacity SKUs and Extended Lead Times 

• Seagate and Western Digital are demanding 2-year forecasts. Lead times for 20TB+ drives now stretch into 2026. 
• WD supply constraints keep worsening; deliveries are only for orders up to 2-3 months ago. The new backlog is facing a 3-4 month delivery time.  
• Drives below 16TB, particularly 1TB and 2TB models, are facing EOL notices and severe allocation cuts. Seagate has stopped accepting new 1TB orders. Lead times for remaining low-capacity models exceed 22 weeks. 
• Seagate and WD have implemented or signaled single-digit to double-digit percentage price increases across enterprise and high-performance desktop (Red/Purple/Gold) lines. 

Passives

Extended Lead Times and Allocation 

• Samsung, Murata, and Taiyo Yuden MLCCs continue to face supply issues, with lead times for some series stretching to 24-28 weeks. 
• Tantalum capacitors are seeing lead times of 24-28 weeks. Panasonic capacitors are at 16-18 weeks. 
• The industry is facing upstream shortages of key materials like low-Dk fiberglass and HVLP copper foil, which are being prioritized for AI server PCBs, threatening broader PCBA production in 2026. 

Supply Chain Trends 

• Supply Chain Braces for China’s Rare Earth Curbs: Businesses across the global semiconductor supply chain are bracing themselves for disruptions from an escalating trade war, after China imposed curbs on rare earth mineral exports. The rare earth curbs might lead to weeks-long delays in shipments for ASML Holding NV, the only manufacturer in the world of machines that make the most advanced semiconductors. 
• Geopolitical Reshoring Accelerates: The combination of tariffs and supply chain fragility is accelerating investments in regional manufacturing. Companies are actively planning for “zero China/Taiwan” semiconductor supply chains by 2029, driving reshoring initiatives. 
• ACEA calls for resolution on Nexperia saga: The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) is deeply concerned by potential significant disruption to European vehicle manufacturing, as automotive suppliers cannot build the parts and components needed to supply vehicle manufacturers.

Manufacturer News & Updates 

• Samsung: Samsung Electronics anticipates its highest quarterly profit since 2022, projecting a 12.1 trillion won ($8.5 billion) operating profit for July-September 2025. The surge is driven by tight supply and rising prices of conventional memory chips (DRAM and NAND), fueled by strong demand for data center servers. [Source: Reuters] 
• Samsung and SK Hynix: Both companies have recently accelerated the construction of new plants to meet strong demand expected through 2027. Both will serve as production hubs for next-generation DRAM memory and are scheduled for completion in April and May 2027. [Source: DigiTimes Asia] 
• Intel: Intel has officially launched production at its state-of-the-art Fab 52 facility in Arizona, the company announced on October 9. The milestone includes the rollout of its long-awaited Panther Lake processors, the first to use Intel's cutting-edge 18A manufacturing process. The chips will power a new wave of AI PCs expected to debut at CES 2026, a development seen as a potential turning point for the US chip giant. [Source: Intel Press Release]